Saturday, August 22, 2009

We're "Leveling Out?"

Well it looks like the recession is over or at least heading in that direction. Apparently there is no need to worry about a deeper recession and certainly not a Depression. We are out of the woods. Never mind the trillions of dollars of debt we have incurred over the past year as a country. Let’s just forget about the fact that companies all over the country are still closing their doors, unemployment continues to rise, and foreclosures are at an all time high. Forget about all that, we are safe! We are now moving towards more prosperity and better times. Well, of course, that is if you believe our Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. If you believe the Washington Zealots and the special interests groups that helped put us in our current situation.

At a speech at the annual Fed conference (I wonder how much that cost us tax payers?!?) Bernanke says we are now “leveling out.” We are now seeing signs that growth is in the near future. On the surface this looks like great news. To the lay person this would give hope and reduce the pain and stress they have been enduring since the economy collapsed, but ask yourself this: is this type of news going to help or hurt our country in the near future? If people think we really are getting out of this economic disaster and the truth comes out that it’s still getting worse, could this actually hurt us more than help? What if the recession isn’t over, but that down the road we will experience hyper-inflation, further unemployment and a complete collapse of our dollar? If he is wrong, which I believe he is, couldn’t this further hurt the citizens of the Republic? If people believe good times are coming, is it reasonable to believe that they will lower their guard and not save, conserve and be frugal with their money and their spending habits? With these types of lies, could Ben Bernanke and our government be risking each citizen’s ability to prepare for an even worse economic disaster?

If you believe that this type of false information could further cripple the economy how can you help? How can you as an individual help and how can you structure your business to assist people in the future?

In the article, linked below, Bernanke gives no examples or evidence that the economy is on the rebound. He seems to forget that states like California and Michigan are virtually bankrupt. He seems to have amnesia about the idea that we have incurred trillions and trillions of dollars of debt just in the past 8 months. It also appears as though his brain cannot rationalize the dominion effect that results from business shutting down, employees being laid off and property being foreclosed. With less businesses operating, there will be less workers working causing more homes to be foreclosed. With this perpetual cycle showing no signs of restraint, do you honestly believe our Fed Chairman is telling the truth? As a quick side note, think about the impact Cap and Trade and adding 47 million more people to our health care system will have on our debt and our economy. With this administration it seems like they do and believe the opposite of what they say. Do you think these comments might be a distraction in order to boost the Obama Administrations objectives and popularity in the public?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/08/21/bernanke-economy-cusp-recovery/

Friday, August 21, 2009

How about of dose of reality?

short thoughts on a big slap in the face . . .
Dow 6500 or lower by end of year
serious/major discussions of how to prop up the US dollar as it collapses by the end of the year
50% + of the US population ready to admit they are hurting and need help by the end of the year

anyone willing to wager that these predictions are wrong? let me know

click on title above or cut and paste below:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Is-This-Rally-The-Final-Kiss-etfguide-3572165417.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Dangers to our Economy

Is anyone concerned about what the media, the politicians and the average American are not currently focused on? Have any of you noticed that this month the debate is about Health Care Reform and last month it was about Cap and Trade and the month before that it revolved around Card Check? Have you noticed a trend that as we focus on what the flavor of the month may be, there is another government/media hand conducting business on another issue?

As we debate about Health Care Reform this month, don't forget about these other issues, as well as, topics that have yet to be deeply discussed. The Czars that the Obama Administration has chosen to run wild in our Republic add a scary element to this avalanche style government project to overhall our country.

Other big issues with huge implications for our future and our freedom include:

The regulation of conservative talk radio. If Obama's FCC Czar has his way he will require more frequent licensing renewals for radio stations and will require that more local and diverse parties share their views on the radio. The reason for this is obvious, where the "left" have a voice in the print media, the "right" have theirs' with the radio waves. If the government can silence their voice, people like Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck and Sean Hannity, what do you think they can do to you? How would they be able to regulate your freedoms, your "freedom" of speech, and your ability to earn an income and how can you protect against that government infiltration?

Another huge and very unknown threat to our freedoms is the current use of Shariah Law in our financial industry. Shariah Law, a law that governs the extremist of the Muslim faith allows for men to beat their wives, the stoning death of rape victims and the complete brutal rule of man over women. Shariah Law also requires that Muslims pay no interest on investments and requires any investment to fit their requirements under this law. That means, these investments can not include the pork industry, the alcohol industry and many other industries. The problem with this, is the fact that companies like HSBC, DowJones and others have hired a board of Muslim extremist, self proclaimed terrorist sympathizers and activits, to run and over see these investments. The money used in these investments is linked to terror groups all over the world and the more we allow Shariah Law to infilitrate our financial industry the more control these terrorists will have over our economy and ultimately our freedom. What do you think will happen to companies like HSBC and others the worse the ecomony gets? Will they reject these Muslim groups on the premise of what is moral and right, or will these greedy companies chase this money in order to make a buck in this struggling economy? Please also understand that state governments are starting to support this principle of allowing Sharia Law to dictate investing. In Minnesota, the government has authorized the use of "special" Shariah endorsed mortgages that allow Muslims to buy homes without paying interest. How scary? **important side note, the governor of Minnesota is Tim Pawlenty and he will probably run for president in 2012 for the Republicans. Can we really afford to have someone who supports this conduct to be our next president?

Other important issues, not including the Health Care debate is Cap and Tax, I mean Cap and Trade. Also Card Check, the desire for the government to reduce defense spending and the belief system of these Liberal Progressives. I strongly encourage you to read books, such as, Catastrophe by Dick Morris, American Progressivism by Ronald Pestritto, and most importantly the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution. Get to know your history, your rights, and what this Republic is all about. Be a voice and do not allow the corruption on both sides of the isle distract you from the truth and real issues that we face today. When the government is talking health care reform, or Cap and Trade, with their right hand look to see what their left hand is doing. See through the distraction, because if government truly wanted to create "change" they would not make everything so complicated.

Think about it. I can fit the entire Constitution and Declaration of Independence in my back pocket. The creation of our whole Republic, a very daunting and complicated task, can easily be read and understood in a matter of hours or at least days. Why? Was it because they were not articulate and educate or was it rather because they wanted every American to easily understand what freedoms and rights they had? Why do you think a single bill these days is over 1000 pages and 5 to 10 pounds in weight? If the two documents that provided our Freedom and Rights on Earth can be so simply written, why can't they all? Don't you think if the government truly cared about the people, they would simplify the process? And more importantly, are we as Americans and as the boss of these Congressmen and Senators going to continue to allow this to happen? I used to be a party guy, not a wild party animal but a supporter of the GOP, now I label myself as conservatively independent. I have chosen to support what is right and who follows the Constitution. Are you going to continue to be a "party" person or are you finally going to focus on what is best for the Republic regardless of which party or individual endorses or invents the idea?

Which one is worse - Politicians and Leaders who lie or who are just plain stupid?

Mortgage delinquencies now at record highs . . . wonder why everyone is saying that the housing market has bottomed if we are now seeing delinquencies at record highs? You don’t think NAR and our elected officials would lie to us do you? It certainly must be that they are simply really stupid, huh? Which one is worse?

as always click on title of this piece or cut and paste from below:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Mortgage-delinquencies-hit-apf-1442009590.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

Thursday, August 13, 2009

With the S&P 500 well above 1000 and the Dow gaining on 9500, many investors are finding it difficult to hold on to cash and/or fixed income investments. While it is clear most of the growth we see are results of unsustainable factors (inventory accumulation, car production increases, just to name a few), we are caught in a "greater fool" market. Which is to say that irrational markets can seemingly always get just a bit more irrational. In this market, many of us foolishly buy overvalued stock and sell them at even more overvalued prices, on the theory that there's always a "greater fool" to buy them. Of course, the danger is in being the greatest fool of all, and be left holding too much when the bubble pops.

Long term, its excruciating clear that our economy is not out of the woods and growth will come at a painstaking slow pace. Even if the US grow by 6% during the 3rd quarter of this year, the 3-quarter growth rate will still be negative. And contrary to popular belief, having a positive growth quarter does not signal the end of the recession.

Furthermore, investments that have provided a safe haven to equity and fixed income markets in the past (such as real estate, commodities, etc) have suffered in some cases more than the equities market. Investors are stuck in a no-win situation in a world where volatility has tripled and market timing is next to impossible - many have simply decided to stay in cash and cover their eyes.

While there is no perfect solution, its become increasingly clear that a well developed asset allocation which moderates volatility and provides the best risk-adjusted return is still the way to go. With the flexibility to be nimble and to make tactical adjustments you can accomplish both capital preservation and derive relatively attractive returns.

One might ask what an asset allocation model will look like in today's world. The response is that it depends on specific risk tolerance and return goals. But in general, it will work on a core / satellite model. The core investments will be the primary driver of achieving return and/or income goals. while satellite investments will seek to moderate risk, lower volatility and generate uncorrelated returns to the core portfolio(s).

Its a traders' market. But its also a market where asset allocators can truly shine.

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Half of the nation will be underwater by 2011 -

I recently ran a search of all homeowners in Naples that were at least 30 percent underwater. Think the Naples market is protected? Think again... There were more than 20,000 home owners in one zip code that were totally upside with their first mortgage.

More and more, I realize how many homeowners will need the help of experienced, qualified agents who can effectively negotiate a settlement of their mortgage through a short sale.

The banks need to shorten the approval timelines and work with us to get these homes sold.

Sellers need a clearly defined strategy to determine whether a loan modification, short sale or other foreclosure avoidance plan will work for them.

This article clearly shows where we are headed... Buckle up ya'll. It's going to get much worse before it gets better.


Please feel free to contact us for a free consultation on how we can help. lgottesman@topproducer.com 239-898-1463

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Yeah the market's hit a bottom and things are getting better . . . If you are an IDIOT you might believe that!

Take a look at the data provided by the nation's top foreclosure data collection service (click on article title above or cut and paste http://www.realtytrac.com/news/Press/newsletter-articles.asp?a=b&ItemId=6959&accnt=216648 ) It clearly states the following:

One out of every 380 households in the entire United States received a foreclosure notice in just the month of June 2009! If you divide the 380 by 12 months you will quickly see (1 out of every 32) how many households we are now on pace to have receive notices over the next year. If you are an average American, you know at least 300+ people. That means YOU know someone who received a notice last month, someone who will receive one this month and every month for the next several years. When will it be your turn?

Nationwide foreclosure filings were up 5% in June 2009 over May 2009. A 5% increase in just one month!

Nationwide foreclosure filings were up 33% over the same period in 2008 - simple math tells us that we have averaged less than a 3% per month increase to total 33% over the course of the past year - if the past month is 5%, isn't that more than 3%? doesn't that mean the rate of foreclosure filings is INCREASING? Rapidly?

Overstating the obvious and asking questions:
Over 2/3 of the homes already foreclosed on by banks have not yet come back on the market, what impact have the less than 1/3 already had on pricing?

If 2/3 haven't come back on and 1/3 has, does that mean that the impact on pricing created by this 2/3 will be twice the impact of the first 1/3? Or is 2/3 not twice 1/3? (Reality is the impact will be far more than twice, but I don't have the patience to explain why right now, I'm too irritated by the lying politicians and Realtors blowing sunshine up everyone's asses telling them all is wonderful!)

If the rate of foreclosure filings is increasing, is there any way a sane individual with any more than rocks in their head could reasonably think that, as our government's leaders and the liars at NAR would have us believe "we have hit a bottom?"

If we know that on average it is taking well over a year for properties entering the foreclosure process to actually go through the process and come back on the market, when will these new filings actually add to the already staggering supply currently available? Or will they simply be put on the shelf w/ all the other shadow inventory being held by lenders? Do you really expect them to hold the properties forever? Is it possible that a handful of individuals could actually profit beyond anything we could fathom by using this shadow inventory to push prices down?

If we realistically expect foreclosure filings to peak in the later half of 2012 (see previous entries at www.smashedfeet.com) when will the peak of distressed home supply actually hit the market?

How long after that will demand increase at a sufficient enough pace to start putting a dent in the enormous supply?

If we know that once supply has peaked and demand is not falling we will hit a market bottom within 6-12 months, when will that occur?

Once we reach that market bottom, will buyers, lenders and others magically forget what happened to get us there and start diving back into the real estate market throwing caution to the wind or will the bottom be extended with an eventual slow and careful re entry by the lenders and buyers?

If we can realistically assume inventory won't peak until late 2013 at the earliest, and a bottom won't be reached until most likely at least 2015, how long will that bottom last?

How many years will it take to get back to today's levels?

How many baby boomers will still be around, let alone buying at that point?

How many lenders will still be around, let alone lending at that point?

When our government, NAR, etc all start insisting that things are turning around, almost jumping up and down shouting that it's getting better . . . what is the one thing you know it's not getting?

Or are you one of the sheep who believes what our politicians and Realtors tell you?

More questions to consider:
What happens when the rest of the world, led by Brazil, Russia, India and China no longer permit the US Dollar to be artificially propped up?

What happens when no one wants to lend $ to the US?

What happens when the US can't even afford to make interest payments on the debt owed to the rest of the world?

What happens when US citizens realize that the money they were told was available for their pensions and retirements really isn't there?

What happens when all the sheep stop being fed?

Hmmmm . . .

The most important question:
What are you doing to position yourself and those you care about to help as many others as possible through the stress, chaos and turmoil that exists today and the unavoidable future pain already guaranteed by asinine irresponsible choices over the past 60+ years?

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Here it comes, health care and the tip of the tax increase iceberg . . .

Taxes won't go up for 95% of Americans. Remember a year ago when we were all promised this?

How about improved health care system promises?

check out:
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/294876/Despite-Obama%E2%80%99s-Promise-Higher-Taxes-Needed-for-Health-Care-Reform-Top-Economist-Stiglitz-Says?tickers=%5Edji,%5EGSPC,unh,ihf,AET,WLP,CI&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

or click on title above to see if you like the track we are on . . .

I don't

While certainly a capable economist, Joseph Stiglitz, can't really beleive that raising taxes now will EVER result in lower taxes later!

Geithner - funny, but not really!

Mike Morgan recently wrote the following, this is why I respect him, click on title above or cut and paste link below for a funny, yet sad clip:


Hank Paulson was devious, corrupt and an outright criminal that far exceeded anything Madoff did. But he's a Goldman Sachs untouchable.

Tim Geithner is also devious, corrupt and an outright criminal, but he is also dumb as a box of rocks. Then again, maybe he is sly as a fox and just continuing the masterful fraud that Hank Paulson started.

Below is a link to a clip everyone should watch. Here is Tim the Tax Cheat telling us AGAIN that the recession is over AND the housing crisis is over . . . but he can't sell his old house!

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-july-29-2009/home-crisis-investigation

Let me assure you, the housing crisis is NOT over. In fact, it is going to get much worse as unemployment rises and the banks are eventually forced to release the foreclosed homes on their books.

As a Florida real estate broker working with banks and asset managers, I can definitively state that there are a flood of foreclosures backing up in the system. Moreover, when they do come on the market, here in Florida we have a thing called mold. Since the banks are not properly managing these properties, many of the homes we see come on the foreclosure market have had no air conditioning for months . . . which means they are full of toxic mold. Sometimes these properties are given a quick white wash.

Basically, banks are not in the real estate business. Most of them hire inept asset managers that destroy value by ignoring what needs to be done to manage these properties. We don't work with them, but we see the results of their inattention every day. The asset managers we work with demand perfection, and this means clean the homes up and turn on all utilities. Beware if you are buying a foreclosed home, and beware of the flood of foreclosures yet to hit the markets.

The Housing Crisis is not over. Think of it like a drowning person that comes up for yet one more breath of air before sinking to the bottom.