Underestimating part #2

Wow, I guess I did it again. We have seen the Dow drop faster and further than I had expected. I don’t think Dow 5000 is now impossibility. I suspect we will bounce around with mass confusion for the balance of the year and then by Mid January 2009 stabilize somewhat before our looooooong downward slide. This will also mark the beginning of the public’s realization that we are in fact in the midst of the largest global depression in the history of mankind. Whoever our next US President is, they will end up going down in history as the worst ever, because no matter what they do, the situation will only get worse. If they do nothing (the right choice) and let the markets work themselves out, people will fault their inaction. If they do what politicians and governments normally do (silly, self serving things) they will be (rightfully) criticized. They truly are in a no win. I suspect during the next 2-3 years we will come to the realization, that our retirement funds (including social security) are gone, our massive coddling programs (welfare, Medicare, etc) will be gone and people will truly be responsible for themselves. Is that really such a bad thing?

Underestimating . . .

4 years ago this month, I shared with clients in AZ, NV, FL, CA and a few other places that we would see a correction of at least 30-50% in housing prices. I underestimated.

2 years ago, I shared with clients in the US and Canada that we would see the Dow drop from over 14,000 to at least 8,500. I underestimated.

I am not alone in having seen these corrections coming, many people far brighter than I have seen, and understood, what was coming.

Over the last few months I have shared with clients that I see:
95% or more of Americans financially far worse off a decade from now than they are today;
Gold at $2,500/ounce within 12-18 months;
Interest rates in excess of 10-12% within 24-36 months;
US unemployment approaching 20% within 24 months;
Home ownership rates in the US dropping to 52%, or lower within 5-7 years;
US real estate prices continuing to decline for another 5-7 years and then staying practically flat for a decade or more;
The US losing its position as “The” dominant global power;
Hyper inflation in the US within 18 months;
Riots leading to potential revolution as soon as people realize their retirement savings are gone.


As I sit here thinking this morning, I wonder, how much of these have I underestimated?

How much pain and suffering will people endure? How can I do my part to minimize this? If your finances are not where you need them to be, if you are carrying debt please do yourself the favor of contacting the guys at http://www.moorehelptrust.com/ if you are not currently maximizing your human potential, and you truly want to do so, spend a few minutes reviewing what the people at http://www.allthebluewhales.com/ are doing to try and help good people. Get involved not in politics, that is - for now - an unwinnable battle, get involved in making your life one of influence, one of purpose and one where you are leading others by your example . . . or simply live the life of our favorite giant flightless bird, the ostrich, bury your head in the sand, with your ass sticking way up in the air for the entire world to come along and kick. The choice is yours, make it wisely!

The wealthiest American to ever live (having accumulated a fortune of more than triple Bill Gates PLUS Warren Buffet) once said

"I always tried to turn every disaster into an opportunity."-- John D. Rockefeller