Sales of existing homes drop 27.2% in July from previous month - I told you so
Sales of new homes drop 12.1% in July from previous month - I told you so
US Real estate is not a nest egg or viable investment - I told you so
Politicians only make situation worse - I told you so
US Housing market in double dip - I told you so
Riots and revelotion occuring in USA - I told you so, oh wait that one hasn't happened . . . yet
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38820610
Housing in double dip – yeah, we told you it was coming – did you listen? If you want help email Kirk@KirkNace.com share your story and maybe you will be one of the lucky ones shown the best way to optimize your situation!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38811394
NY Times – Your home is NOT a nest egg. Reality is that in the US real estate values have basically kept even with inflation since 1890!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fidelity-401k-hardship-apf-2389751238.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
AP if things are getting better why are more people taking money from the retirement plans?
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-15-states-with-the-most-underwater-homes-2010-7study this and come up with a half dozen or so questions you can ask the next time so rocket scientist Realtor, or seller who has been influenced by them, tells you that things are getting better
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/news/article.aspx?feed=MY&date=20100819&id=11912826
Quite simply the most well done piece I have seen yet, and I review 100+/day, on what would truly be in US citizens best interest, period – Kudos to David Stockman!!!
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-good-idea-for-fixing-housing-2010-08-20?pagenumber=1
Wall Street Journal writer discusses the reality of US housing supply/demand/pricing mix
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Saturday, August 21, 2010
This Is Why There Are No Jobs in America
By Porter Stansberry
Saturday, August 21, 2010
I'd like to make you a business offer.
Seriously. This is a real offer. In fact, you really can't turn me down, as you'll come to understand in a moment…
Here's the deal. You're going to start a business or expand the one you've got now. It doesn't really matter what you do or what you're going to do. I'll partner with you no matter what business you're in – as long as it's legal.
But I can't give you any capital – you have to come up with that on your own. I won't give you any labor – that's definitely up to you. What I will do, however, is demand you follow all sorts of rules about what products and services you can offer, how much (and how often) you pay your employees, and where and when you're allowed to operate your business. That's my role in the affair: to tell you what to do.
Now in return for my rules, I'm going to take roughly half of whatever you make in the business each year. Half seems fair, doesn't it? I think so. Of course, that's half of your profits.
You're also going to have to pay me about 12% of whatever you decide to pay your employees because you've got to cover my expenses for promulgating all of the rules about who you can employ, when, where, and how. Come on, you're my partner. It's only "fair."
Now… after you've put your hard-earned savings at risk to start this business, and after you've worked hard at it for a few decades (paying me my 50% or a bit more along the way each year), you might decide you'd like to cash out – to finally live the good life.
Whether or not this is "fair" – some people never can afford to retire – is a different argument. As your partner, I'm happy for you to sell whenever you'd like… because our agreement says, if you sell, you have to pay me an additional 20% of whatever the capitalized value of the business is at that time.
I know… I know… you put up all the original capital. You took all the risks. You put in all of the labor. That's all true. But I've done my part, too. I've collected 50% of the profits each year. And I've always come up with more rules for you to follow each year. Therefore, I deserve another, final 20% slice of the business.
Oh… and one more thing…
Even after you've sold the business and paid all of my fees… I'd recommend buying lots of life insurance. You see, even after you've been retired for years, when you die, you'll have to pay me 50% of whatever your estate is worth.
After all, I've got lots of partners and not all of them are as successful as you and your family. We don't think it's "fair" for your kids to have such a big advantage. But if you buy enough life insurance, you can finance this expense for your children.
All in all, if you're a very successful entrepreneur… if you're one of the rare, lucky, and hard-working people who can create a new company, employ lots of people, and satisfy the public… you'll end up paying me more than 75% of your income over your life. Thanks so much.
I'm sure you'll think my offer is reasonable and happily partner with me… but it doesn't really matter how you feel about it because if you ever try to stiff me – or cheat me on any of my fees or rules – I'll break down your door in the middle of the night, threaten you and your family with heavy, automatic weapons, and throw you in jail.
That's how civil society is supposed to work, right? This is Amerika, isn't it?
That's the offer Amerika gives its entrepreneurs. And the idiots in Washington wonder why there are no new jobs…
Regards,
Porter Stansberry
-----------------------------------------------------
Wow, is it any wonder that the sharpest people we know have been helping us see for years that we are headed towards "The Former United States of America?"
Saturday, August 21, 2010
I'd like to make you a business offer.
Seriously. This is a real offer. In fact, you really can't turn me down, as you'll come to understand in a moment…
Here's the deal. You're going to start a business or expand the one you've got now. It doesn't really matter what you do or what you're going to do. I'll partner with you no matter what business you're in – as long as it's legal.
But I can't give you any capital – you have to come up with that on your own. I won't give you any labor – that's definitely up to you. What I will do, however, is demand you follow all sorts of rules about what products and services you can offer, how much (and how often) you pay your employees, and where and when you're allowed to operate your business. That's my role in the affair: to tell you what to do.
Now in return for my rules, I'm going to take roughly half of whatever you make in the business each year. Half seems fair, doesn't it? I think so. Of course, that's half of your profits.
You're also going to have to pay me about 12% of whatever you decide to pay your employees because you've got to cover my expenses for promulgating all of the rules about who you can employ, when, where, and how. Come on, you're my partner. It's only "fair."
Now… after you've put your hard-earned savings at risk to start this business, and after you've worked hard at it for a few decades (paying me my 50% or a bit more along the way each year), you might decide you'd like to cash out – to finally live the good life.
Whether or not this is "fair" – some people never can afford to retire – is a different argument. As your partner, I'm happy for you to sell whenever you'd like… because our agreement says, if you sell, you have to pay me an additional 20% of whatever the capitalized value of the business is at that time.
I know… I know… you put up all the original capital. You took all the risks. You put in all of the labor. That's all true. But I've done my part, too. I've collected 50% of the profits each year. And I've always come up with more rules for you to follow each year. Therefore, I deserve another, final 20% slice of the business.
Oh… and one more thing…
Even after you've sold the business and paid all of my fees… I'd recommend buying lots of life insurance. You see, even after you've been retired for years, when you die, you'll have to pay me 50% of whatever your estate is worth.
After all, I've got lots of partners and not all of them are as successful as you and your family. We don't think it's "fair" for your kids to have such a big advantage. But if you buy enough life insurance, you can finance this expense for your children.
All in all, if you're a very successful entrepreneur… if you're one of the rare, lucky, and hard-working people who can create a new company, employ lots of people, and satisfy the public… you'll end up paying me more than 75% of your income over your life. Thanks so much.
I'm sure you'll think my offer is reasonable and happily partner with me… but it doesn't really matter how you feel about it because if you ever try to stiff me – or cheat me on any of my fees or rules – I'll break down your door in the middle of the night, threaten you and your family with heavy, automatic weapons, and throw you in jail.
That's how civil society is supposed to work, right? This is Amerika, isn't it?
That's the offer Amerika gives its entrepreneurs. And the idiots in Washington wonder why there are no new jobs…
Regards,
Porter Stansberry
-----------------------------------------------------
Wow, is it any wonder that the sharpest people we know have been helping us see for years that we are headed towards "The Former United States of America?"
Friday, August 20, 2010
WSJ: Is a Crash Coming? Ten Reasons to Be Cautious
I have seen this a few times in the last 2 days, my comments are inserted in [CAPS]
Is a Crash Coming? Ten Reasons to Be Cautious • By BRETT ARENDS
Could Wall Street be about to crash again? [YEP]
This week's bone-rattlers may be making you wonder.
I don't make predictions. That's a sucker's game. [I GENERALLY AGREE, EXCEPT WHEN IT'S THINGS LIKE GRAVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK AND AS OUR FRIEND "OUCH!" HAS WRITTEN FOREVER, THE LAW OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND CONTINUING TO WORK - THANKS AGAIN KIRK] And I'm certainly not doing so now.
But way too many people are way too complacent this summer. Here are 10 reasons to watch out.
1. The market is already expensive. Stocks are about 20 times cyclically-adjusted earnings, according to data compiled by Yale University economics professor Robert Shiller. That's well above average, which, historically, has been about 16. This ratio has been a powerful predictor of long-term returns. Valuation is by far the most important issue for investors. If you're getting paid well to take risks, they may make sense. But what if you're not? [EARNINGS HAVE BEEN HELD ARTIFICIALLY HIGH AND AS THEY DROP THIS 20X WILL LOOK EVEN WORSE]
2. The Fed is getting nervous. This week it warned that the economy had weakened, and it unveiled its latest weapon in the war against deflation: using the proceeds from the sale of mortgages to buy Treasury bonds. That should drive down long-term interest rates. Great news for mortgage borrowers. But hardly something one wants to hear when the Dow Jones Industrial Average is already north of 10000.
3. Too many people are too bullish. Active money managers are expecting the market to go higher, according to the latest survey by the National Association of Active Investment Managers. So are financial advisers, reports the weekly survey by Investors Intelligence. And that's reason to be cautious. The time to buy is when everyone else is gloomy. The reverse may also be true. [MONEY MANAGERS AND FINANCIAL PLANNERS ARE BULLISH BECAUSE THEY MAKE MONEY SPEWING NONSENSE, JUST LIKE NAR AND ALL THEIR DROID REALTORS TELLING EVERYONE WE'VE HIT A BOTTOM IN THE HOUSING MARKET - WHAT A BUNCH OF SHI$%^!]
4. Deflation is already here. Consumer prices have fallen for three months in a row. And, most ominously, it's affecting wages too. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, last quarter, workers earned 0.7% less in real terms per hour than they did a year ago. No wonder the Fed is worried. In deflation, wages, company revenues, and the value of your home and your investments may shrink in dollar terms. But your debts stay the same size. That makes deflation a vicious trap, especially if people owe way too much money. [THINK JAPAN NO APPROACHING 2 LOST DECADES AND REALIZE THAT IF WE CAN GET AWAY WITH JUST THAT WE WILL BE VERY FORTUNATE!]
5. People still owe way too much money. Households, corporations, states, local governments and, of course, Uncle Sam. It's the debt, stupid. According to the Federal Reserve, total U.S. debt—even excluding the financial sector—is basically twice what it was 10 years ago: $35 trillion compared to $18 trillion. Households have barely made a dent in their debt burden; it's fallen a mere 3% from last year's all-time peak, leaving it twice the level of a decade ago. [HELL A DECADE AGO WE HAD FAR TOO MUCH DEBT AND WE KNEW, AND DISCUSSED THAT IT WAS UNSUSTAINABLE!!!]
6. The jobs picture is much worse than they're telling you. Forget the "official" unemployment rate of 9.5%. Alternative measures? Try this: Just 61% of the adult population, age 20 or over, has any kind of job right now. That's the lowest since the early 1980s—when many women stayed at home through choice, driving the numbers down. Among men today, it's 66.9%. Back in the '50s, incidentally, that figure was around 85%, though allowances should be made for the higher number of elderly people alive today. And many of those still working right now can only find part-time work, so just 59% of men age 20 or over currently have a full-time job. This is bullish? [LESS THAN 3 OUT OF 5 US MEN OVER 20 YEARS OF AGE HAVE A FULL TIME JOB? YEP THINGS ARE JUST FINE OUT THERE, THAT NUMBER RIVALS THE 30'S]
7. Housing remains a disaster. Foreclosures rose again last month. Banks took over another 93,000 homes in July, says foreclosure specialist RealtyTrac. That's a rise of 9% from June and just shy of May's record. We're heading for 1 million foreclosures this year, RealtyTrac says. And naturally the ripple effects hurt all those homeowners not in foreclosure, by driving down prices. See deflation (No. 4) above. [ I WON'T TOUCH THIS ONE OTHER THAN TO SAY IF YOU AREN'T FOLLOWING WHAT KIRK NACE HAS BEEN SHARING FOREVER YOU WILL EVENTUALLY KICK YOURSELF, HIS PROJECTIONS, WHILE SOMETIMES A BIT TO CAUTIOUS, HAVE BEEN DEAD ON. HE IS NOW SAYING WE ARE 5+ YEARS AND AT LEAST 25% PRICE WISE FROM A BOTTOM. IF I KNOW HIM, AND I DO, I WOULD BET THAT WE ARE AT LEAST 7 YEARS AND 35+% FROM A BOTTOM, NOT BECAUSE I KNOW MORE BUT BECAUSE I KNOW HE TENDS TO BE TOO CONSERVATIVE IN HIS ANALYSIS.]
8. Labor Day is approaching. Ouch. It always seems to be in September-October when the wheels come off Wall Street. Think 2008. Think 1987. Think 1929. Statistically, there actually is a "September effect." The market, on average, has done worse in that month than any other. No one really knows why. Some have even blamed the psychological effect of shortening days. But it becomes self-reinforcing: People fear it, so they sell. [LOOKS LIKE WE MAY HAVE STARTED A BIT EARLY THIS YEAR . . . GOTTA LOVE SDS/SRS/SPXU THANKS KIRK!]
9. We're looking at gridlock in Washington. Election season has already begun. And the Democrats are expected to lose seats in both houses in November. (Betting at InTrade, a bookmaker in Dublin, Ireland, gives the GOP a 62% chance of taking control of the House.) As our political dialogue seems to have collapsed beyond all possible hope of repair, let's not hope for any "bipartisan" agreements on anything of substance. Do you think this is a good thing? As Davis Rosenberg at investment firm Gluskin Sheff pointed out this week, gridlock is only a good thing for investors "when nothing needs fixing." Today, he notes, we need strong leadership. Not gonna happen. [DON'T GET ME STARTED - REVOLOUTION/RIOTS/REBUILDING WITH A CLEAN SLATE IS THE MOST REASONABLE OPTION, PERIOD]
10. All sorts of other indicators are flashing amber. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index, while still positive, weakened again in July. So did ISM's new-orders indicator. The trade deficit has widened, and second-quarter GDP growth was much lower than first thought. ECRI's Weekly Leading Index has been flashing warning lights for weeks (though the most recent signals have looked somewhat better). Europe's industrial production in June turned out considerably worse than expected. Even China's steamroller economy is slowing down. Tech bellwether Cisco Systems has signaled caution ahead. Individually, each of these might mean little. Collectively, they make me wonder. In this environment, I might be happy to buy shares if they were cheap. But not so much if they're expensive. See No. 1 above. [BUCKLE UP, IF YOU AREN'T HELPING PEOPLE WHO ARE HURTING YOU ARE MISSING THE CHANCE OF A LIFETIME.]
Is a Crash Coming? Ten Reasons to Be Cautious • By BRETT ARENDS
Could Wall Street be about to crash again? [YEP]
This week's bone-rattlers may be making you wonder.
I don't make predictions. That's a sucker's game. [I GENERALLY AGREE, EXCEPT WHEN IT'S THINGS LIKE GRAVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK AND AS OUR FRIEND "OUCH!" HAS WRITTEN FOREVER, THE LAW OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND CONTINUING TO WORK - THANKS AGAIN KIRK] And I'm certainly not doing so now.
But way too many people are way too complacent this summer. Here are 10 reasons to watch out.
1. The market is already expensive. Stocks are about 20 times cyclically-adjusted earnings, according to data compiled by Yale University economics professor Robert Shiller. That's well above average, which, historically, has been about 16. This ratio has been a powerful predictor of long-term returns. Valuation is by far the most important issue for investors. If you're getting paid well to take risks, they may make sense. But what if you're not? [EARNINGS HAVE BEEN HELD ARTIFICIALLY HIGH AND AS THEY DROP THIS 20X WILL LOOK EVEN WORSE]
2. The Fed is getting nervous. This week it warned that the economy had weakened, and it unveiled its latest weapon in the war against deflation: using the proceeds from the sale of mortgages to buy Treasury bonds. That should drive down long-term interest rates. Great news for mortgage borrowers. But hardly something one wants to hear when the Dow Jones Industrial Average is already north of 10000.
3. Too many people are too bullish. Active money managers are expecting the market to go higher, according to the latest survey by the National Association of Active Investment Managers. So are financial advisers, reports the weekly survey by Investors Intelligence. And that's reason to be cautious. The time to buy is when everyone else is gloomy. The reverse may also be true. [MONEY MANAGERS AND FINANCIAL PLANNERS ARE BULLISH BECAUSE THEY MAKE MONEY SPEWING NONSENSE, JUST LIKE NAR AND ALL THEIR DROID REALTORS TELLING EVERYONE WE'VE HIT A BOTTOM IN THE HOUSING MARKET - WHAT A BUNCH OF SHI$%^!]
4. Deflation is already here. Consumer prices have fallen for three months in a row. And, most ominously, it's affecting wages too. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, last quarter, workers earned 0.7% less in real terms per hour than they did a year ago. No wonder the Fed is worried. In deflation, wages, company revenues, and the value of your home and your investments may shrink in dollar terms. But your debts stay the same size. That makes deflation a vicious trap, especially if people owe way too much money. [THINK JAPAN NO APPROACHING 2 LOST DECADES AND REALIZE THAT IF WE CAN GET AWAY WITH JUST THAT WE WILL BE VERY FORTUNATE!]
5. People still owe way too much money. Households, corporations, states, local governments and, of course, Uncle Sam. It's the debt, stupid. According to the Federal Reserve, total U.S. debt—even excluding the financial sector—is basically twice what it was 10 years ago: $35 trillion compared to $18 trillion. Households have barely made a dent in their debt burden; it's fallen a mere 3% from last year's all-time peak, leaving it twice the level of a decade ago. [HELL A DECADE AGO WE HAD FAR TOO MUCH DEBT AND WE KNEW, AND DISCUSSED THAT IT WAS UNSUSTAINABLE!!!]
6. The jobs picture is much worse than they're telling you. Forget the "official" unemployment rate of 9.5%. Alternative measures? Try this: Just 61% of the adult population, age 20 or over, has any kind of job right now. That's the lowest since the early 1980s—when many women stayed at home through choice, driving the numbers down. Among men today, it's 66.9%. Back in the '50s, incidentally, that figure was around 85%, though allowances should be made for the higher number of elderly people alive today. And many of those still working right now can only find part-time work, so just 59% of men age 20 or over currently have a full-time job. This is bullish? [LESS THAN 3 OUT OF 5 US MEN OVER 20 YEARS OF AGE HAVE A FULL TIME JOB? YEP THINGS ARE JUST FINE OUT THERE, THAT NUMBER RIVALS THE 30'S]
7. Housing remains a disaster. Foreclosures rose again last month. Banks took over another 93,000 homes in July, says foreclosure specialist RealtyTrac. That's a rise of 9% from June and just shy of May's record. We're heading for 1 million foreclosures this year, RealtyTrac says. And naturally the ripple effects hurt all those homeowners not in foreclosure, by driving down prices. See deflation (No. 4) above. [ I WON'T TOUCH THIS ONE OTHER THAN TO SAY IF YOU AREN'T FOLLOWING WHAT KIRK NACE HAS BEEN SHARING FOREVER YOU WILL EVENTUALLY KICK YOURSELF, HIS PROJECTIONS, WHILE SOMETIMES A BIT TO CAUTIOUS, HAVE BEEN DEAD ON. HE IS NOW SAYING WE ARE 5+ YEARS AND AT LEAST 25% PRICE WISE FROM A BOTTOM. IF I KNOW HIM, AND I DO, I WOULD BET THAT WE ARE AT LEAST 7 YEARS AND 35+% FROM A BOTTOM, NOT BECAUSE I KNOW MORE BUT BECAUSE I KNOW HE TENDS TO BE TOO CONSERVATIVE IN HIS ANALYSIS.]
8. Labor Day is approaching. Ouch. It always seems to be in September-October when the wheels come off Wall Street. Think 2008. Think 1987. Think 1929. Statistically, there actually is a "September effect." The market, on average, has done worse in that month than any other. No one really knows why. Some have even blamed the psychological effect of shortening days. But it becomes self-reinforcing: People fear it, so they sell. [LOOKS LIKE WE MAY HAVE STARTED A BIT EARLY THIS YEAR . . . GOTTA LOVE SDS/SRS/SPXU THANKS KIRK!]
9. We're looking at gridlock in Washington. Election season has already begun. And the Democrats are expected to lose seats in both houses in November. (Betting at InTrade, a bookmaker in Dublin, Ireland, gives the GOP a 62% chance of taking control of the House.) As our political dialogue seems to have collapsed beyond all possible hope of repair, let's not hope for any "bipartisan" agreements on anything of substance. Do you think this is a good thing? As Davis Rosenberg at investment firm Gluskin Sheff pointed out this week, gridlock is only a good thing for investors "when nothing needs fixing." Today, he notes, we need strong leadership. Not gonna happen. [DON'T GET ME STARTED - REVOLOUTION/RIOTS/REBUILDING WITH A CLEAN SLATE IS THE MOST REASONABLE OPTION, PERIOD]
10. All sorts of other indicators are flashing amber. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index, while still positive, weakened again in July. So did ISM's new-orders indicator. The trade deficit has widened, and second-quarter GDP growth was much lower than first thought. ECRI's Weekly Leading Index has been flashing warning lights for weeks (though the most recent signals have looked somewhat better). Europe's industrial production in June turned out considerably worse than expected. Even China's steamroller economy is slowing down. Tech bellwether Cisco Systems has signaled caution ahead. Individually, each of these might mean little. Collectively, they make me wonder. In this environment, I might be happy to buy shares if they were cheap. But not so much if they're expensive. See No. 1 above. [BUCKLE UP, IF YOU AREN'T HELPING PEOPLE WHO ARE HURTING YOU ARE MISSING THE CHANCE OF A LIFETIME.]
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Who is it going to be?
The battle has begun, will ALL US taxpayers get stuck with the bill to subsidize home ownership, or will those who choose to buy carry the load themselves???
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/08/pimcos-gross-calls-privately-held-mortgages-impractical-and-unrealistic/61645/
PIMCO’s Gross wants the government (read that US TAXPAYERS) to assume all risk for housing market. Are you ok with that???
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100817/pl_afp/useconomypropertyfinancestocks
The future of Fannie and Freddie – what a mess!
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/62242848/
CEO of radar logic talks about a HUGE check US taxpayers are going to be writing – well done video
http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=7944644
Well done piece, simple. Pay attention to the last few lines and ask yourself what is in store for US builders, their employees and their suppliers? Why build new when there are so many more affordable options
http://www.american.com/archive/2010/august/dropping-the-ball-during-the-only-game-in-town
Another well done piece on how The Fed is acting (or not acting) effectively
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/08/pimcos-gross-calls-privately-held-mortgages-impractical-and-unrealistic/61645/
PIMCO’s Gross wants the government (read that US TAXPAYERS) to assume all risk for housing market. Are you ok with that???
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100817/pl_afp/useconomypropertyfinancestocks
The future of Fannie and Freddie – what a mess!
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/62242848/
CEO of radar logic talks about a HUGE check US taxpayers are going to be writing – well done video
http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=7944644
Well done piece, simple. Pay attention to the last few lines and ask yourself what is in store for US builders, their employees and their suppliers? Why build new when there are so many more affordable options
http://www.american.com/archive/2010/august/dropping-the-ball-during-the-only-game-in-town
Another well done piece on how The Fed is acting (or not acting) effectively
Saturday, August 14, 2010
US taxpayers, falling home ownership, looong pipeline for future foreclosures and more ...
This was a busy week as the main stream continues to wake up to the reality we have been sharing for years - there is a LOT more downside ahead of the US Housing Market!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38669791
NY Times why every US taxpayer should be concerned . . .
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2010/08/11/UPI-NewsTrack-Business/UPI-51841281543407/
UPI buyers are simply waiting – duh!
http://imarketnews.com/node/17794
1 in every 397 US homes CURRENTLY in foreclosure process, and the number seriously delinquent is far higher!
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2010/08/12/bank-repossessions-drive-july-foreclosures/
Fox Foreclosures higher than ever, but not as high as they could be. Banks are managing foreclosures because of over 5 million seriously delinquent loans
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2010-08-11-housing11_cv_N.htm
USA Today well done piece on Fannie/Freddie and the government’s housing policy. Watch for US home ownership rates to fall from a peak of almost 70% to a bottom of around 50-55% within the next decade
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38654640
Reuters record low interest rates do nothing to increase demand. Almost 80% of all loan applications are for refi’s NOT new purchases
http://www.businessinsider.com/after-signs-of-improvement-commercial-real-estate-prices-fall-sharply-in-june-2010-8
commercial prices fall as well. IF you have followed what we share here, and what Kirk Nace has been sharing forever, commercial markets follow residential markets. If you are paying attention you will know that commercial markets are much further from an ultimate bottom (at least 8-10 years) than residential markets (5-7 years.) THINK people THINK!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38669791
NY Times why every US taxpayer should be concerned . . .
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2010/08/11/UPI-NewsTrack-Business/UPI-51841281543407/
UPI buyers are simply waiting – duh!
http://imarketnews.com/node/17794
1 in every 397 US homes CURRENTLY in foreclosure process, and the number seriously delinquent is far higher!
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2010/08/12/bank-repossessions-drive-july-foreclosures/
Fox Foreclosures higher than ever, but not as high as they could be. Banks are managing foreclosures because of over 5 million seriously delinquent loans
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2010-08-11-housing11_cv_N.htm
USA Today well done piece on Fannie/Freddie and the government’s housing policy. Watch for US home ownership rates to fall from a peak of almost 70% to a bottom of around 50-55% within the next decade
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38654640
Reuters record low interest rates do nothing to increase demand. Almost 80% of all loan applications are for refi’s NOT new purchases
http://www.businessinsider.com/after-signs-of-improvement-commercial-real-estate-prices-fall-sharply-in-june-2010-8
commercial prices fall as well. IF you have followed what we share here, and what Kirk Nace has been sharing forever, commercial markets follow residential markets. If you are paying attention you will know that commercial markets are much further from an ultimate bottom (at least 8-10 years) than residential markets (5-7 years.) THINK people THINK!
Saturday, August 7, 2010
The winds are picking up . . .
For quite some time now we have been sharing with you that the US Housing Market has been in the eye of the hurricane, well it's starting to move out of the eye. Winds are building and the back half of this housing hurricane will prove to be very, very strong. If you haven't shorted housing (SRS) or the markets in general (we like SDS and SPXU) you may find yourself with a dislocated hip from having kicked yourself so hard at some point in the next 6 months or so (it will likely be after the upcoming elections.) In any event here are this weeks mainstream media articles of note . . .
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/06/fannie-mae-home-prices-to_n_672776.html
Fannie Mae now saying prices will continue dropping - DUH!
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0622002720100807
Reuters Govt officials acknowledge just how pathetic results of subsidized loan mod programs really are . . . here come a lot more foreclosures!
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/majority-of-american-families-plan-to-spend-less-than-last-year-or-nothing-at-all-on-back-to-school-shopping-according-to-rbc-consumer-outlook-index-100025504.html
families not spending money on back to school? Yeah, the economy is rebounding . . . are you high? Look around at the people you know, how many are better off financially than they were 1, 3, 5 or even 10 years ago? Ok take a look at how many are not. Does that look like improvement to you? Forget the statistics and stories that politicians and Realtors constantly throw at you (we all know how famous those two groups are for honesty and integrity) look at your own experiences and observations. Hmmm
http://www.dailymarkets.com/economy/2010/08/04/imf-us-real-estate-sectors-could-bring-banking-crisis-20/
US housing market continued correction could create 2nd wave of financial crisis . . . could or will???
http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnews/20100803/ts_usnews/housingmarkettakesanotherstepbackwards
US News & World Report Home sales hit new low. After huge drop in pending sales from April to May, pending sales again took another big hit from May to June
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-01/greenspan-says-decline-in-u-s-home-prices-might-bring-back-the-recession.html
Bloomberg Former Fed head Greenspan warns of double dip
http://www.forbes.com/2010/07/26/employment-recession-economy-finance-opinions-contributors-mallory-factor.html
Forbes.com Would the government really spin jobs numbers just for political purposes??? Duh! If all the people who the government claims have quit looking for jobs (because they are so discouraged) were counted in unemployment numbers, we would be closer to Spain’s 20+% unemployment rate than we are to the highly inaccurate 9.5% our political machine wants us to see. Stop and ask yourself, with all of this recovery that is supposedly happening, who do you know that is better off financially now than 1, 5 or even 10 years ago??? Now ask yourself the converse, how many people do you know who are worse off? Hmmm, what does that tell you about the real economy, not the fairytale being spun by those in Washington DC???
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/06/fannie-mae-home-prices-to_n_672776.html
Fannie Mae now saying prices will continue dropping - DUH!
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0622002720100807
Reuters Govt officials acknowledge just how pathetic results of subsidized loan mod programs really are . . . here come a lot more foreclosures!
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/majority-of-american-families-plan-to-spend-less-than-last-year-or-nothing-at-all-on-back-to-school-shopping-according-to-rbc-consumer-outlook-index-100025504.html
families not spending money on back to school? Yeah, the economy is rebounding . . . are you high? Look around at the people you know, how many are better off financially than they were 1, 3, 5 or even 10 years ago? Ok take a look at how many are not. Does that look like improvement to you? Forget the statistics and stories that politicians and Realtors constantly throw at you (we all know how famous those two groups are for honesty and integrity) look at your own experiences and observations. Hmmm
http://www.dailymarkets.com/economy/2010/08/04/imf-us-real-estate-sectors-could-bring-banking-crisis-20/
US housing market continued correction could create 2nd wave of financial crisis . . . could or will???
http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnews/20100803/ts_usnews/housingmarkettakesanotherstepbackwards
US News & World Report Home sales hit new low. After huge drop in pending sales from April to May, pending sales again took another big hit from May to June
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-01/greenspan-says-decline-in-u-s-home-prices-might-bring-back-the-recession.html
Bloomberg Former Fed head Greenspan warns of double dip
http://www.forbes.com/2010/07/26/employment-recession-economy-finance-opinions-contributors-mallory-factor.html
Forbes.com Would the government really spin jobs numbers just for political purposes??? Duh! If all the people who the government claims have quit looking for jobs (because they are so discouraged) were counted in unemployment numbers, we would be closer to Spain’s 20+% unemployment rate than we are to the highly inaccurate 9.5% our political machine wants us to see. Stop and ask yourself, with all of this recovery that is supposedly happening, who do you know that is better off financially now than 1, 5 or even 10 years ago??? Now ask yourself the converse, how many people do you know who are worse off? Hmmm, what does that tell you about the real economy, not the fairytale being spun by those in Washington DC???
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