Click on the title or cut and paste from below. Southern CA, SW FL, AZ will see even greater drops. Gee, if only someone had shared this with readers of this and clients as far back as 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, etc
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE VALUES IN THE US WILL NOT BOTTOM UNTIL AT LEAST THE LATTER PART OF 2014
THEY WILL APPROXIMATE VALUATIONS FOR SIMILAR PROPERTIES FROM APPROXIMATELY 1996
WE HAVE ONLY SEEN APPROX 50% OF THE PRICING CORRECTION AND APPROX 30% OF THE DURATION
ONCE WE DO REACH A BOTTOM WE WILL SEE DECADES OF LITTLE OR VERY MODEST APPRECIATION.
GO BACK THROUGH, READ AND ACTUALLY THINK SO YOU UNDERSTAND NOT ONLY HOW, BUT WHY THAT WILL HAPPEN.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Homes-About-to-get-much-cnnm-699910894.html?x=0
PS continue to PRAY that the above is accurate as alternatives are ALL far more painful
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Monday, October 12, 2009
Anti Foreclosure programs are failing!
According to the recent article (click on title above or cut and paste from below)
The foreclosure programs we currently have in place in the US are failing. Couple the information from attached article with the fact, that according to Deutsche Bank over half of all US homeowners will be underwater by 2011 and then ask yourself, the people who are getting modifications today will be where by the time things are considerably worse in 2011, 2012, 2013 and so on?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Antiforeclosure-programs-are-rb-2222173672.html?x=0
The foreclosure programs we currently have in place in the US are failing. Couple the information from attached article with the fact, that according to Deutsche Bank over half of all US homeowners will be underwater by 2011 and then ask yourself, the people who are getting modifications today will be where by the time things are considerably worse in 2011, 2012, 2013 and so on?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Antiforeclosure-programs-are-rb-2222173672.html?x=0
Friday, October 9, 2009
An Obituary printed in the London Times -
This was just forwarded to me, thought you might appreciate it . . .
Today we mourn the passing of a beloved old friend, Common Sense, who has been with us for many years. No one knows for sure how old he was, since his birth records were long ago lost in bureaucratic red tape.
He will be remembered as having cultivated such valuable lessons as:
- Knowing when to come in out of the rain;
- Why the early bird gets the worm;
- Life isn't always fair;
- and maybe it was my fault.
Common Sense lived by simple, sound financial policies (don't spend more than you can earn) and reliable strategies (adults, not children, are in charge).
His health began to deteriorate rapidly when well-intentioned but overbearing regulations were set in place. Reports of a 6-year-old boy charged with sexual harassment for kissing a classmate; teens suspended from school for using mouthwash after lunch; and a teacher fired for reprimanding an unruly student, only worsened his condition.
Common Sense lost ground when parents attacked teachers for doing the job that they themselves had failed to do in disciplining their unruly children. It declined even further when schools were required to get parental consent to administer sun lotion or an aspirin to a student; but could not inform parents when a student became pregnant and wanted to have an abortion.
Common Sense lost the will to live as the churches became businesses; and criminals received better treatment than their victims. Common Sense took a beating when you couldn't defend yourself from a burglar in your own home and the burglar could sue you for assault.
Common Sense finally gave up the will to live, after a woman failed to realize that a steaming cup of coffee was hot. She spilled a little in her lap, and was promptly awarded a huge settlement. Common Sense was preceded in death, by his parents, Truth and Trust, by his wife, Discretion, by his daughter, Responsibility, and by his son, Reason.
He is survived by his 4 stepbrothers; I Know My Rights, I Want It Now, Someone Else Is To Blame, and I'm A Victim
Not many attended his funeral because so few realized he was gone. If you still remember him, pass this on. If not, join the majority and do nothing
Today we mourn the passing of a beloved old friend, Common Sense, who has been with us for many years. No one knows for sure how old he was, since his birth records were long ago lost in bureaucratic red tape.
He will be remembered as having cultivated such valuable lessons as:
- Knowing when to come in out of the rain;
- Why the early bird gets the worm;
- Life isn't always fair;
- and maybe it was my fault.
Common Sense lived by simple, sound financial policies (don't spend more than you can earn) and reliable strategies (adults, not children, are in charge).
His health began to deteriorate rapidly when well-intentioned but overbearing regulations were set in place. Reports of a 6-year-old boy charged with sexual harassment for kissing a classmate; teens suspended from school for using mouthwash after lunch; and a teacher fired for reprimanding an unruly student, only worsened his condition.
Common Sense lost ground when parents attacked teachers for doing the job that they themselves had failed to do in disciplining their unruly children. It declined even further when schools were required to get parental consent to administer sun lotion or an aspirin to a student; but could not inform parents when a student became pregnant and wanted to have an abortion.
Common Sense lost the will to live as the churches became businesses; and criminals received better treatment than their victims. Common Sense took a beating when you couldn't defend yourself from a burglar in your own home and the burglar could sue you for assault.
Common Sense finally gave up the will to live, after a woman failed to realize that a steaming cup of coffee was hot. She spilled a little in her lap, and was promptly awarded a huge settlement. Common Sense was preceded in death, by his parents, Truth and Trust, by his wife, Discretion, by his daughter, Responsibility, and by his son, Reason.
He is survived by his 4 stepbrothers; I Know My Rights, I Want It Now, Someone Else Is To Blame, and I'm A Victim
Not many attended his funeral because so few realized he was gone. If you still remember him, pass this on. If not, join the majority and do nothing
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Hope and pray for things to unfold as described by Ouch!
If you've read the article posted just prior to this and it concerns you - you better hope and pray he's right! If he's not you won't see prices fall, instead you will see prices rise because of out of control hyper inflation. Sure, your house would again be worth more than you owe, but lunch at a fast food joint will also cost you $200! I don't know for sure that this is coming, but it won't surprise me if it does.
Bottom my ass! No pun intended
According to the article below (or click on title above) you can see that the "shadow inventory" we have been reporting is not only real, it's staggering. Banks are already sitting on close to 17 months worth of housing inventory THAT THEY HAVEN'T EVEN PUT ON THE MARKET YET!!! With defaults growing daily and not expected to peak until at least 2012 how much more shadow inventory is going to be created?
One report I read recently suggested that perhaps banks are accumulating this inventory to play a high stakes game of chicken with the US Government. There are currently very, very few banks who have the capital necessary to sell these properties and realize the losses that until now they have not had to acknowledge. If in fact banks are waiting for our politicians to bail them out yet again and somehow allow them to never have to realize these losses, who will ultimately pay for that? Whether the banks are bailed out or not, what will happen to prices as this shadow inventory is ultimately disposed of? Even an elementary understanding of the law of supply and demand would allow you to clearly understand that active supply on the market today is large enough to cause prices to continue to fall.
Couple all of this with rising unemployment, rising skepticism from potential buyers, rising interest rates (yes Toto, you will again see fixed rates in the 9-10% range and possibly much much higher,) a falling dollar, a continuing shrinkage in the availability of credit, the shadow inventory and the rapidly approaching demise of the commercial real estate market and you have a recipe for prices to fall, nationally, another 30%+ from today's current levels. The bottom, nationally will not occur before 2014, at the absolute earliest. Are you prepared? Would you like to be? Raise your hand, ask for help and I will contact you to discuss options, simply comment to this article with your contact info and I will be in touch.
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-housing-overhang-2009-9?utm_source=Triggermail&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Clusterstock%20Chart%20Of%20The%20Day%2C%20Tuesday%2C%209%2F29%2F09
One report I read recently suggested that perhaps banks are accumulating this inventory to play a high stakes game of chicken with the US Government. There are currently very, very few banks who have the capital necessary to sell these properties and realize the losses that until now they have not had to acknowledge. If in fact banks are waiting for our politicians to bail them out yet again and somehow allow them to never have to realize these losses, who will ultimately pay for that? Whether the banks are bailed out or not, what will happen to prices as this shadow inventory is ultimately disposed of? Even an elementary understanding of the law of supply and demand would allow you to clearly understand that active supply on the market today is large enough to cause prices to continue to fall.
Couple all of this with rising unemployment, rising skepticism from potential buyers, rising interest rates (yes Toto, you will again see fixed rates in the 9-10% range and possibly much much higher,) a falling dollar, a continuing shrinkage in the availability of credit, the shadow inventory and the rapidly approaching demise of the commercial real estate market and you have a recipe for prices to fall, nationally, another 30%+ from today's current levels. The bottom, nationally will not occur before 2014, at the absolute earliest. Are you prepared? Would you like to be? Raise your hand, ask for help and I will contact you to discuss options, simply comment to this article with your contact info and I will be in touch.
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-housing-overhang-2009-9?utm_source=Triggermail&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Clusterstock%20Chart%20Of%20The%20Day%2C%20Tuesday%2C%209%2F29%2F09
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)