Friday, October 10, 2008

Underestimating part #2

Wow, I guess I did it again. We have seen the Dow drop faster and further than I had expected. I don’t think Dow 5000 is now impossibility. I suspect we will bounce around with mass confusion for the balance of the year and then by Mid January 2009 stabilize somewhat before our looooooong downward slide. This will also mark the beginning of the public’s realization that we are in fact in the midst of the largest global depression in the history of mankind. Whoever our next US President is, they will end up going down in history as the worst ever, because no matter what they do, the situation will only get worse. If they do nothing (the right choice) and let the markets work themselves out, people will fault their inaction. If they do what politicians and governments normally do (silly, self serving things) they will be (rightfully) criticized. They truly are in a no win. I suspect during the next 2-3 years we will come to the realization, that our retirement funds (including social security) are gone, our massive coddling programs (welfare, Medicare, etc) will be gone and people will truly be responsible for themselves. Is that really such a bad thing?