Start by making a note to go back and read the entry posted on September 14, 2008. See if anything projected there has come to pass. Then read on here, as this entry is going to be direct and will not sugar coat what we feel our future will hold.
If you want to remain part of the masses – or should we say asses, we suggest you get permanently stoned, drunk or high in some way as to numb the pain you will most assuredly feel over the next decade plus. If you want to be part of the solution, and you realize that in order to do so you must educate and inform yourself thereby enhancing your ability to think, first of all “Thank you!” Secondly, read on . . .
In 2009 we will see . . .
An epidemic of people walking away from their debt obligations, this will result in at least 50-80% of all residential mortgages going into default. The rate will be higher for credit card loans, and other consumer debt, but not until 2010 and beyond;
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dip below 6,0000;
More pension funds collapse and people NOT receiving the money they feel they need to live on during their retirement years;
More rioting around the world, perhaps the first US riots;
By the end of 2010 we will see . . .
US rioting where the National Guard is used to dismiss unhappy citizens who have finally awakened and are feeling “screwed;”
Gold at or above $2500/ounce;
More and more Americans realizing that owning real estate makes less sense than renting it;
True investors surfacing to buy US real estate at numbers where the gross monthly rental income is at least 1.25% of the purchase price in the best locations in the country, this number will be well in excess of 3-5% in less desirable areas;
US commercial real estate markets start to collapse;
The US government involved in hundreds, possibly thousands of businesses deemed “critical” to our way of life;
A formal acknowldegement that we are in a severe global depression;
Dozens more "Madoff" type schemes uncovered;
Other countries taking over as global powers;
By 2014 we will have seen . . .
US mortgage requiring 25-50% down with interest rates at 20% or above;
US real estate values reaching a bottom of at least 35%+ lower than where they are in February of 2009;
Fewer than 600,000 Realtors in the US;
US healthcare costs no longer able to be met as the more habits created over the past many years have now led to unprecedented levels of cancer, heart disease, and the like;
Social Security, welfare and other nationalized programs fail;
The US dollar collapse;
The global financial markets paralyzed, collapsed and in a state of complete chaos;
Unemployment in the US in excess of 15% this could easily by 20%+;
Inflation in excess of 12%;
President Obama, through none of his own doing, go down in history as the worst US President as he happened to be in office during this collapse. Reality is he may turn out to be among the best, but with the worst timing imaginable . . . sadly, he may also prove to be the last US President;
China and India as the dominant manufacturing, military and intellectual nations in the world.
By 2020 we will have seen . . .
A few, probably not more than 3, major global currencies;
A new nation, or nations, formed from the remains of the United States where people have started to go back to basic human values of family, honesty, fairness, loyalty, love, happiness, and so on. Things like greed, ego, lying, cheating, stealing, etc will be far less popular
Next week we’ll talk about how to speed up this time line! In the meantime, think about where you are in your life, are you truly happy? Please feel free to comment and/or share this site with others. If you were to go back and review this site from it’s origin you would most likely be scared at how accurate it has been. Hopefully, you would then feel anxious to share it with those you care about! Want more information on how you can make a difference? Send an email to info@allthebluewhales.com and simply request a time to speak so that you can make a difference!
Friday, February 27, 2009
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
So where are we . . . really?
About a week ago an article was posted “How we got here.” So where is here? I’m glad you asked. Please consider what it means if any or all of the following are real, true, valid and accurate. I believe they all are.
As a nation we have borrowed every penny the world will lend us, now other countries no longer want to extend us credit or buy our debt. What will that mean when we need money to “fund our recovery?”
We are almost to a point where we can no longer fund the interest payments on the money we have borrowed from the rest of the world. What will they do when we can’t pay them what we owe them?
Throughout history, wars have often been fought to distract the masses from other realities and / or in hopes that they would stimulate an economy. Do you see the US potentially getting involved in any wars for reasons like this?
We are printing, or creating, new money faster than we ever have. What will happen when the supply of US dollars is so huge that others no longer see value in it?
We have more and more people realizing that they are paying for other people’s poor choices. What happens when the responsible people who are so far footing the bill for the greed and ignorance of others have had enough?
We have an enormous number of people getting very close to collecting their retirement incomes. What happens when the people and companies they entrusted to protect their retirement savings have to come clean and acknowledge that those dollars were invested in things, which while “guaranteed” and “AAA rated,” simply are worthless today? What happens when more money starts being requested from these retirement pools each month than is available? What will people do when they don’t get their checks each month?
We have had the National Guard significantly increase exercises designed to extinguish domestic rioting. Why? Do you think that when retirees don’t get their checks there might be some unhappy people? Do you think that if they eventually get their checks for a few hundred dollars each month only to find themselves in a hyper inflation economy where that few hundred dollars barely buys them a happy meal they will be very happy?
We have almost an infinite number of people and solutions being presented to fix our national, and to some extent the global economy. What will happen when more and more people realize that nothing is being fixed? And that these “bailouts” are only lining the pockets of a very select few and aren’t accomplishing anything other than to make the situation worse?
We are seeing credit tighten; it is becoming more and more difficult to borrow money and to become highly leveraged. What will happen when 20% - 30% - or maybe even 50% is required as an actual down payment to buy real estate? How many people will actually be able to buy? What will happen to prices with that small number of potential buyers?
We are at a point of high unemployment, far higher than government reports (are you suggesting that the government might stretch the truth?) When more and more people are out of work, what will they do? How will things change? Will they eat cheaper foods (junk foods and fast foods?) Will they drink more to drown their sorrows? Will they smoke more and participate in more vices at higher and higher levels? What will that do to their health? If they are out of work who will pay their health care bills?
We are rapidly approaching a point where more and more people realize that what’s done is done, the die has in fact been cast for decades, and now many will feel as if nothing matters. What will that do to crime rates? Suicide rates? Drop out rates? Teen pregnancy rates? Addictions and so on?
Are you aware of any of this around you right now, today? What are you doing to help? How are you making the situation better? Where does it start? Are you leading by example? Are you focused on finding someone to help today? Can you truly help anyone without having first helped yourself? When you are able to help others, and you make the effort to truly matter and make a difference to and for others, what happens to your life? When, now, would you like more of that to happen?
Are you on track? Don’t know where to start? Go to www.allthebluewhales.com and take a look at the FAQ’s and info on the 7 equities. Or you could remain part of the masses. What was the quote about the masses published in the article on how we got here? Pass this on, share it with those you care about, cause them to think, to ask questions and to make a difference.
As a nation we have borrowed every penny the world will lend us, now other countries no longer want to extend us credit or buy our debt. What will that mean when we need money to “fund our recovery?”
We are almost to a point where we can no longer fund the interest payments on the money we have borrowed from the rest of the world. What will they do when we can’t pay them what we owe them?
Throughout history, wars have often been fought to distract the masses from other realities and / or in hopes that they would stimulate an economy. Do you see the US potentially getting involved in any wars for reasons like this?
We are printing, or creating, new money faster than we ever have. What will happen when the supply of US dollars is so huge that others no longer see value in it?
We have more and more people realizing that they are paying for other people’s poor choices. What happens when the responsible people who are so far footing the bill for the greed and ignorance of others have had enough?
We have an enormous number of people getting very close to collecting their retirement incomes. What happens when the people and companies they entrusted to protect their retirement savings have to come clean and acknowledge that those dollars were invested in things, which while “guaranteed” and “AAA rated,” simply are worthless today? What happens when more money starts being requested from these retirement pools each month than is available? What will people do when they don’t get their checks each month?
We have had the National Guard significantly increase exercises designed to extinguish domestic rioting. Why? Do you think that when retirees don’t get their checks there might be some unhappy people? Do you think that if they eventually get their checks for a few hundred dollars each month only to find themselves in a hyper inflation economy where that few hundred dollars barely buys them a happy meal they will be very happy?
We have almost an infinite number of people and solutions being presented to fix our national, and to some extent the global economy. What will happen when more and more people realize that nothing is being fixed? And that these “bailouts” are only lining the pockets of a very select few and aren’t accomplishing anything other than to make the situation worse?
We are seeing credit tighten; it is becoming more and more difficult to borrow money and to become highly leveraged. What will happen when 20% - 30% - or maybe even 50% is required as an actual down payment to buy real estate? How many people will actually be able to buy? What will happen to prices with that small number of potential buyers?
We are at a point of high unemployment, far higher than government reports (are you suggesting that the government might stretch the truth?) When more and more people are out of work, what will they do? How will things change? Will they eat cheaper foods (junk foods and fast foods?) Will they drink more to drown their sorrows? Will they smoke more and participate in more vices at higher and higher levels? What will that do to their health? If they are out of work who will pay their health care bills?
We are rapidly approaching a point where more and more people realize that what’s done is done, the die has in fact been cast for decades, and now many will feel as if nothing matters. What will that do to crime rates? Suicide rates? Drop out rates? Teen pregnancy rates? Addictions and so on?
Are you aware of any of this around you right now, today? What are you doing to help? How are you making the situation better? Where does it start? Are you leading by example? Are you focused on finding someone to help today? Can you truly help anyone without having first helped yourself? When you are able to help others, and you make the effort to truly matter and make a difference to and for others, what happens to your life? When, now, would you like more of that to happen?
Are you on track? Don’t know where to start? Go to www.allthebluewhales.com and take a look at the FAQ’s and info on the 7 equities. Or you could remain part of the masses. What was the quote about the masses published in the article on how we got here? Pass this on, share it with those you care about, cause them to think, to ask questions and to make a difference.
Monday, February 23, 2009
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
2000+ yr old wisdom
The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance. -- Cicero 55 BC
Some things never change!
Some things never change!
Monday, February 16, 2009
How We Got Here
Eighty years ago, “The Roaring Twenties” were coming to a screeching halt. A decade of excess was over, what followed has since become known as “The Great Depression.” Excess followed by lack, a pattern played out many times in history. Unfortunately, the masses seldom learn. As I was once told “The masses are asses.”
So how does this have to do with us being where we are today? After the excesses of the 1920’s we, as a nation, experienced severe hardships: hunger; pain; suffering; economic uncertainty; escalating crime, unemployment and suicide rates. Not a real happy time for most. Yet during that time a very, very small percentage of the people created the foundations for enormous success and abundance. How did they do it? Did they find a way to help those who were hurting, a way to ease the pain felt by the masses? Throughout the ages many of the greatest fortunes ever accumulated were created by those who found ways to help others, to provide hope, to ease pain, and to make lives better as seemingly everyone around them was suffering. By making a difference and helping others, people throughout the ages have built empires.
During this “Great Depression” and the war years that followed, people forgot about the excesses of the 1920’s and instead focused on things that were truly important: helping others; family; love; survival, things Maslow would have told us fulfilled their most basic human needs. As a nation we changed our focus, we rolled up our sleeves, we got to work and we built the most powerful country the world had ever seen. An entire generation learned firsthand the value of hard work, discipline and determination. Through those lessons, we ultimately built enormous wealth, huge abundance and prosperity. We created manufacturing and business entities unrivaled around the world. The United State of America had pulled itself up by the proverbial bootstraps and through sheer determination, and hard work had created incredible abundance.
At the time, we had no idea how much of a curse this would prove to be. This great generation of hard working Americans had created a dynasty unlike any the world had known. Simultaneously, they had created “The Baby Boomers.” These children of the people who had turned our country into the greatest nation in the world grew up benefitting from the efforts of their parents. What good parent didn’t want to give more to their children than they themselves had? So one generation creates the wealth and abundance, the next enjoys it. Unfortunately, starting sometime around the 1960’s or 70’s we started going through the wealth faster than we could create it. Spending and enjoying was, after all, way more fun than working and creating. By the late 1980’s we had developed an appetite for excess far greater than that experienced during the 20’s. Little did we care that the wealth was running out. We started to develop new and ever increasing creativity when it came to borrowing against our wealth, over the next 20 plus years rather than realize that our empire was gone, our wealth spent and that it was time to once again roll up our sleeves and go back to work, we instead found new and ever more risky ways of creating credit. Credit used to satisfy our appetite for more, for excess.
Nowhere was this better demonstrated than in the US housing market. For decades approximately 60% of Americans owned their own home. At that rate, roughly 1 or 2% defaulted on their mortgages and lost their homes. This relatively low rate of foreclosure could be insured and ultimately absorbed back into the supply side of the housing market supply and demand equation without having a significantly negative impact on prices. Somewhere along the lines a few groups of self interested people: The National Association of Realtors; builders, lenders, politicians, etc decided that more people, perhaps 70-75% of Americans should realize “The American Dream” of home ownership. Now I may not have been the best student of all time, particular in history. But I don’t recall ever hearing stories of those on The Nina, The Pinta, and The Santa Maria risking life and limb to come to The New World to fulfill their dreams of home ownership. Reality is, a few relatively small, yet powerful groups decided to “enhance our economy” by attempting to convince more and more Americans that they should own their own homes. Tax incentives were created, down payments and silly notions like buyer’s actually having cash and jobs were thrown aside. Anyone, dead or alive, with or without money, with or without income could get a mortgage, and the supply side of the equation exploded. Homes were built rapidly, home ownership rates increased drastically, peaking at over 70%. Demand was epidemic; it seemed that no matter how fast supply was created more was demanded. As we all know demand without adequate supply will result in rapidly escalating prices. US real estate markets clearly demonstrated this.
Unfortunately, once we reached that peak of home ownership, after real estate prices had been artificially inflated, incredibly creative credit instruments had been created, tens of trillions of people’s retirement dollars had been tied up in ultra complex investment vehicles that almost no one understands, after housing supplies far, far exceeded demand, did we realize that perhaps there was a reason that 70%+ of American households shouldn’t own their own home. Maybe, just maybe they weren’t responsible enough. So what happens when you encourage irresponsible people into situations that require responsibility?
Defaults have now soared to the point where over 1 in 4 US mortgages is delinquent, in default, or already in either bankruptcy or foreclosure. Sad truth is this is going to go higher and could potentially peak at close to 1 of every 2 mortgages, or maybe worse. As more and more defaults occur, the already excessive supply side of the equation continues to grow. This new growth however, is made up of sellers who must get out, at any price. Just as this is now happening, demand has plummeted. Despite attempts by the government and others to encourage demand, many have come to realize that it simply doesn’t make sense to put capital at risk for the privilege of owning something, and thereby being tied to an out of control market, when that same property could be controlled through leasing, for a fraction of the expense. I did pay enough attention to Economics 101 to know that rapidly rising supply with low demand equals dropping prices. I have also lived here long enough to know that 100% of the time the government gets involved and tries to “fix” things that they will absolutely get worse.
So to sum it all up, we are a nation of people who have forgotten how to work and save, we have come to feel entitled to things, we expect to be able to borrow, and buy forever. What happens when no one can or will lend to us anymore? Check back soon and find out!
In the mean time, watch this brief video on inconvenient debt.
So how does this have to do with us being where we are today? After the excesses of the 1920’s we, as a nation, experienced severe hardships: hunger; pain; suffering; economic uncertainty; escalating crime, unemployment and suicide rates. Not a real happy time for most. Yet during that time a very, very small percentage of the people created the foundations for enormous success and abundance. How did they do it? Did they find a way to help those who were hurting, a way to ease the pain felt by the masses? Throughout the ages many of the greatest fortunes ever accumulated were created by those who found ways to help others, to provide hope, to ease pain, and to make lives better as seemingly everyone around them was suffering. By making a difference and helping others, people throughout the ages have built empires.
During this “Great Depression” and the war years that followed, people forgot about the excesses of the 1920’s and instead focused on things that were truly important: helping others; family; love; survival, things Maslow would have told us fulfilled their most basic human needs. As a nation we changed our focus, we rolled up our sleeves, we got to work and we built the most powerful country the world had ever seen. An entire generation learned firsthand the value of hard work, discipline and determination. Through those lessons, we ultimately built enormous wealth, huge abundance and prosperity. We created manufacturing and business entities unrivaled around the world. The United State of America had pulled itself up by the proverbial bootstraps and through sheer determination, and hard work had created incredible abundance.
At the time, we had no idea how much of a curse this would prove to be. This great generation of hard working Americans had created a dynasty unlike any the world had known. Simultaneously, they had created “The Baby Boomers.” These children of the people who had turned our country into the greatest nation in the world grew up benefitting from the efforts of their parents. What good parent didn’t want to give more to their children than they themselves had? So one generation creates the wealth and abundance, the next enjoys it. Unfortunately, starting sometime around the 1960’s or 70’s we started going through the wealth faster than we could create it. Spending and enjoying was, after all, way more fun than working and creating. By the late 1980’s we had developed an appetite for excess far greater than that experienced during the 20’s. Little did we care that the wealth was running out. We started to develop new and ever increasing creativity when it came to borrowing against our wealth, over the next 20 plus years rather than realize that our empire was gone, our wealth spent and that it was time to once again roll up our sleeves and go back to work, we instead found new and ever more risky ways of creating credit. Credit used to satisfy our appetite for more, for excess.
Nowhere was this better demonstrated than in the US housing market. For decades approximately 60% of Americans owned their own home. At that rate, roughly 1 or 2% defaulted on their mortgages and lost their homes. This relatively low rate of foreclosure could be insured and ultimately absorbed back into the supply side of the housing market supply and demand equation without having a significantly negative impact on prices. Somewhere along the lines a few groups of self interested people: The National Association of Realtors; builders, lenders, politicians, etc decided that more people, perhaps 70-75% of Americans should realize “The American Dream” of home ownership. Now I may not have been the best student of all time, particular in history. But I don’t recall ever hearing stories of those on The Nina, The Pinta, and The Santa Maria risking life and limb to come to The New World to fulfill their dreams of home ownership. Reality is, a few relatively small, yet powerful groups decided to “enhance our economy” by attempting to convince more and more Americans that they should own their own homes. Tax incentives were created, down payments and silly notions like buyer’s actually having cash and jobs were thrown aside. Anyone, dead or alive, with or without money, with or without income could get a mortgage, and the supply side of the equation exploded. Homes were built rapidly, home ownership rates increased drastically, peaking at over 70%. Demand was epidemic; it seemed that no matter how fast supply was created more was demanded. As we all know demand without adequate supply will result in rapidly escalating prices. US real estate markets clearly demonstrated this.
Unfortunately, once we reached that peak of home ownership, after real estate prices had been artificially inflated, incredibly creative credit instruments had been created, tens of trillions of people’s retirement dollars had been tied up in ultra complex investment vehicles that almost no one understands, after housing supplies far, far exceeded demand, did we realize that perhaps there was a reason that 70%+ of American households shouldn’t own their own home. Maybe, just maybe they weren’t responsible enough. So what happens when you encourage irresponsible people into situations that require responsibility?
Defaults have now soared to the point where over 1 in 4 US mortgages is delinquent, in default, or already in either bankruptcy or foreclosure. Sad truth is this is going to go higher and could potentially peak at close to 1 of every 2 mortgages, or maybe worse. As more and more defaults occur, the already excessive supply side of the equation continues to grow. This new growth however, is made up of sellers who must get out, at any price. Just as this is now happening, demand has plummeted. Despite attempts by the government and others to encourage demand, many have come to realize that it simply doesn’t make sense to put capital at risk for the privilege of owning something, and thereby being tied to an out of control market, when that same property could be controlled through leasing, for a fraction of the expense. I did pay enough attention to Economics 101 to know that rapidly rising supply with low demand equals dropping prices. I have also lived here long enough to know that 100% of the time the government gets involved and tries to “fix” things that they will absolutely get worse.
So to sum it all up, we are a nation of people who have forgotten how to work and save, we have come to feel entitled to things, we expect to be able to borrow, and buy forever. What happens when no one can or will lend to us anymore? Check back soon and find out!
In the mean time, watch this brief video on inconvenient debt.
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