All of the forecasts here are based upon the author's assumption that real estate is a stable investment which largely tracks inflation. The follow-on assumption is that values broke out of this stable pricing pattern in a real estate bubble which started in 1990.
The basis of the primary assumption, the assumption that real estate is a stable non-appreciating asset, is taken directly from Robert Shiller. He is a leading expert on real estate prices.
"My data shows that between 1890 and 1990 real home prices actually didn't increase," Mr. Shiller wrote in Newsweek (Dec. 30, 2009), 'Why We'll Always Have More Money Than Sense.' If prices didn't appreciate for 100 years, it leads one to assume the break in that pattern is an artificial break.
If this assumption is correct, and who am I to argue with 100 years of history and Mr. Shiller, then it appears our friend Ouch! may be dead on with his prediction that nationally housing prices will return to 1996/1998 levels by around 2015, unless of course we see deflation which, again according to Ouch! may occur prior to a final burst of hyperinflation which will most likely be the proverbial straw that breaks the camel's back and leads us to what he is calling "The Former United States of America" (circa 2020)
