I just read where according to the head of Fannie Mae, 1 of every 25 homes in the US is currently in the foreclosure process, AND THE NUMBER OF FORECLOSURES WILL RISE FOR A FEW MORE YEARS!!!
As you have heard here and as I have been sharing for almost 5 years now, the largest wave of new defaults will begin in the 4Q 2011. How long will it take those defaults to turn into foreclosures? With today's smaller volume it is still almost 2 years from default until a property is foreclosed and comes back onto the market. IF lenders become more efficient and maintain that 2 year window with the higher volume (big IF!) that means that by 4Q 2013 we should see the maximum housing supply coming back into the marketplace. Assuming the government continues to use your tax dollars to encourage people with none of their own money invested to buy and demand stays at current levels (Probably will drop considerably) that would mean a market bottom would occur 6-12 months after the peak in supply, does that put us sometime late 2014? How many years from now is that? If we have thus far dropped 40% nationally since the peak 4 years ago, and we have 5 more years to go, how far down from today's levels is the bottom? Anyone want to bet that nationally housing prices have at least another 30%+ to go from today's levels before bottoming out? How about this bet, values in 2015 will be where they were, or lower, in 1998? Funny how no one ever wants to take those bets - hmmmm wonder what that says? Once we reach that bottom, do you expect people to rush back in or do you think they will be gun shy from the huge beatings they watched others take? Once we reach the bottom we will be flat for up to a decade, and then slowly (1-5%/yr) see an increase in prices. If you knew that prices peaked nationally in 1929 and didn't see those same levels again until 1954 (25 years later for those of you who are numerically challenged) and that correction from peak to bottom was less than one half of what we have seen already . . . how long do you think it will take to return to 2005/6 levels this time around?
I am sitting here in S California writing this and reading that over 50% of all mortgages in California in 2004 were interest only, many of which had 5 year resets at which time they may become fully amortized. I wonder what that means for the CA real estate market as those loans reset and payments increase significantly? Oh wait, what if there is no reset and only a refi option? Can those owners who have seen valuations drop drastically refi today? Uh no. They didn't qualify for a loan legitimately 5 years ago and damn sure don't qualify today! Buckle up CA you are in for a fun ride!
want more info, read the attached by clicking on title above or cut and pasting below
http://www.foreclosure-support.com/wp/foreclosure-homes/foreclosed-home-numbers-will-rise-due-to-interest-only-loans-09111007.html
