Mortgage delinquencies now at record highs . . . wonder why everyone is saying that the housing market has bottomed if we are now seeing delinquencies at record highs? You don’t think NAR and our elected officials would lie to us do you? It certainly must be that they are simply really stupid, huh? Which one is worse?
as always click on title of this piece or cut and paste from below:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Mortgage-delinquencies-hit-apf-1442009590.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Thursday, August 13, 2009
With the S&P 500 well above 1000 and the Dow gaining on 9500, many investors are finding it difficult to hold on to cash and/or fixed income investments. While it is clear most of the growth we see are results of unsustainable factors (inventory accumulation, car production increases, just to name a few), we are caught in a "greater fool" market. Which is to say that irrational markets can seemingly always get just a bit more irrational. In this market, many of us foolishly buy overvalued stock and sell them at even more overvalued prices, on the theory that there's always a "greater fool" to buy them. Of course, the danger is in being the greatest fool of all, and be left holding too much when the bubble pops.
Long term, its excruciating clear that our economy is not out of the woods and growth will come at a painstaking slow pace. Even if the US grow by 6% during the 3rd quarter of this year, the 3-quarter growth rate will still be negative. And contrary to popular belief, having a positive growth quarter does not signal the end of the recession.
Furthermore, investments that have provided a safe haven to equity and fixed income markets in the past (such as real estate, commodities, etc) have suffered in some cases more than the equities market. Investors are stuck in a no-win situation in a world where volatility has tripled and market timing is next to impossible - many have simply decided to stay in cash and cover their eyes.
While there is no perfect solution, its become increasingly clear that a well developed asset allocation which moderates volatility and provides the best risk-adjusted return is still the way to go. With the flexibility to be nimble and to make tactical adjustments you can accomplish both capital preservation and derive relatively attractive returns.
One might ask what an asset allocation model will look like in today's world. The response is that it depends on specific risk tolerance and return goals. But in general, it will work on a core / satellite model. The core investments will be the primary driver of achieving return and/or income goals. while satellite investments will seek to moderate risk, lower volatility and generate uncorrelated returns to the core portfolio(s).
Its a traders' market. But its also a market where asset allocators can truly shine.
Long term, its excruciating clear that our economy is not out of the woods and growth will come at a painstaking slow pace. Even if the US grow by 6% during the 3rd quarter of this year, the 3-quarter growth rate will still be negative. And contrary to popular belief, having a positive growth quarter does not signal the end of the recession.
Furthermore, investments that have provided a safe haven to equity and fixed income markets in the past (such as real estate, commodities, etc) have suffered in some cases more than the equities market. Investors are stuck in a no-win situation in a world where volatility has tripled and market timing is next to impossible - many have simply decided to stay in cash and cover their eyes.
While there is no perfect solution, its become increasingly clear that a well developed asset allocation which moderates volatility and provides the best risk-adjusted return is still the way to go. With the flexibility to be nimble and to make tactical adjustments you can accomplish both capital preservation and derive relatively attractive returns.
One might ask what an asset allocation model will look like in today's world. The response is that it depends on specific risk tolerance and return goals. But in general, it will work on a core / satellite model. The core investments will be the primary driver of achieving return and/or income goals. while satellite investments will seek to moderate risk, lower volatility and generate uncorrelated returns to the core portfolio(s).
Its a traders' market. But its also a market where asset allocators can truly shine.
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Half of the nation will be underwater by 2011 -
I recently ran a search of all homeowners in Naples that were at least 30 percent underwater. Think the Naples market is protected? Think again... There were more than 20,000 home owners in one zip code that were totally upside with their first mortgage.
More and more, I realize how many homeowners will need the help of experienced, qualified agents who can effectively negotiate a settlement of their mortgage through a short sale.
The banks need to shorten the approval timelines and work with us to get these homes sold.
Sellers need a clearly defined strategy to determine whether a loan modification, short sale or other foreclosure avoidance plan will work for them.
This article clearly shows where we are headed... Buckle up ya'll. It's going to get much worse before it gets better.
Please feel free to contact us for a free consultation on how we can help. lgottesman@topproducer.com 239-898-1463
More and more, I realize how many homeowners will need the help of experienced, qualified agents who can effectively negotiate a settlement of their mortgage through a short sale.
The banks need to shorten the approval timelines and work with us to get these homes sold.
Sellers need a clearly defined strategy to determine whether a loan modification, short sale or other foreclosure avoidance plan will work for them.
This article clearly shows where we are headed... Buckle up ya'll. It's going to get much worse before it gets better.
Please feel free to contact us for a free consultation on how we can help. lgottesman@topproducer.com 239-898-1463
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Yeah the market's hit a bottom and things are getting better . . . If you are an IDIOT you might believe that!
Take a look at the data provided by the nation's top foreclosure data collection service (click on article title above or cut and paste http://www.realtytrac.com/news/Press/newsletter-articles.asp?a=b&ItemId=6959&accnt=216648 ) It clearly states the following:
One out of every 380 households in the entire United States received a foreclosure notice in just the month of June 2009! If you divide the 380 by 12 months you will quickly see (1 out of every 32) how many households we are now on pace to have receive notices over the next year. If you are an average American, you know at least 300+ people. That means YOU know someone who received a notice last month, someone who will receive one this month and every month for the next several years. When will it be your turn?
Nationwide foreclosure filings were up 5% in June 2009 over May 2009. A 5% increase in just one month!
Nationwide foreclosure filings were up 33% over the same period in 2008 - simple math tells us that we have averaged less than a 3% per month increase to total 33% over the course of the past year - if the past month is 5%, isn't that more than 3%? doesn't that mean the rate of foreclosure filings is INCREASING? Rapidly?
Overstating the obvious and asking questions:
Over 2/3 of the homes already foreclosed on by banks have not yet come back on the market, what impact have the less than 1/3 already had on pricing?
If 2/3 haven't come back on and 1/3 has, does that mean that the impact on pricing created by this 2/3 will be twice the impact of the first 1/3? Or is 2/3 not twice 1/3? (Reality is the impact will be far more than twice, but I don't have the patience to explain why right now, I'm too irritated by the lying politicians and Realtors blowing sunshine up everyone's asses telling them all is wonderful!)
If the rate of foreclosure filings is increasing, is there any way a sane individual with any more than rocks in their head could reasonably think that, as our government's leaders and the liars at NAR would have us believe "we have hit a bottom?"
If we know that on average it is taking well over a year for properties entering the foreclosure process to actually go through the process and come back on the market, when will these new filings actually add to the already staggering supply currently available? Or will they simply be put on the shelf w/ all the other shadow inventory being held by lenders? Do you really expect them to hold the properties forever? Is it possible that a handful of individuals could actually profit beyond anything we could fathom by using this shadow inventory to push prices down?
If we realistically expect foreclosure filings to peak in the later half of 2012 (see previous entries at www.smashedfeet.com) when will the peak of distressed home supply actually hit the market?
How long after that will demand increase at a sufficient enough pace to start putting a dent in the enormous supply?
If we know that once supply has peaked and demand is not falling we will hit a market bottom within 6-12 months, when will that occur?
Once we reach that market bottom, will buyers, lenders and others magically forget what happened to get us there and start diving back into the real estate market throwing caution to the wind or will the bottom be extended with an eventual slow and careful re entry by the lenders and buyers?
If we can realistically assume inventory won't peak until late 2013 at the earliest, and a bottom won't be reached until most likely at least 2015, how long will that bottom last?
How many years will it take to get back to today's levels?
How many baby boomers will still be around, let alone buying at that point?
How many lenders will still be around, let alone lending at that point?
When our government, NAR, etc all start insisting that things are turning around, almost jumping up and down shouting that it's getting better . . . what is the one thing you know it's not getting?
Or are you one of the sheep who believes what our politicians and Realtors tell you?
More questions to consider:
What happens when the rest of the world, led by Brazil, Russia, India and China no longer permit the US Dollar to be artificially propped up?
What happens when no one wants to lend $ to the US?
What happens when the US can't even afford to make interest payments on the debt owed to the rest of the world?
What happens when US citizens realize that the money they were told was available for their pensions and retirements really isn't there?
What happens when all the sheep stop being fed?
Hmmmm . . .
The most important question:
What are you doing to position yourself and those you care about to help as many others as possible through the stress, chaos and turmoil that exists today and the unavoidable future pain already guaranteed by asinine irresponsible choices over the past 60+ years?
One out of every 380 households in the entire United States received a foreclosure notice in just the month of June 2009! If you divide the 380 by 12 months you will quickly see (1 out of every 32) how many households we are now on pace to have receive notices over the next year. If you are an average American, you know at least 300+ people. That means YOU know someone who received a notice last month, someone who will receive one this month and every month for the next several years. When will it be your turn?
Nationwide foreclosure filings were up 5% in June 2009 over May 2009. A 5% increase in just one month!
Nationwide foreclosure filings were up 33% over the same period in 2008 - simple math tells us that we have averaged less than a 3% per month increase to total 33% over the course of the past year - if the past month is 5%, isn't that more than 3%? doesn't that mean the rate of foreclosure filings is INCREASING? Rapidly?
Overstating the obvious and asking questions:
Over 2/3 of the homes already foreclosed on by banks have not yet come back on the market, what impact have the less than 1/3 already had on pricing?
If 2/3 haven't come back on and 1/3 has, does that mean that the impact on pricing created by this 2/3 will be twice the impact of the first 1/3? Or is 2/3 not twice 1/3? (Reality is the impact will be far more than twice, but I don't have the patience to explain why right now, I'm too irritated by the lying politicians and Realtors blowing sunshine up everyone's asses telling them all is wonderful!)
If the rate of foreclosure filings is increasing, is there any way a sane individual with any more than rocks in their head could reasonably think that, as our government's leaders and the liars at NAR would have us believe "we have hit a bottom?"
If we know that on average it is taking well over a year for properties entering the foreclosure process to actually go through the process and come back on the market, when will these new filings actually add to the already staggering supply currently available? Or will they simply be put on the shelf w/ all the other shadow inventory being held by lenders? Do you really expect them to hold the properties forever? Is it possible that a handful of individuals could actually profit beyond anything we could fathom by using this shadow inventory to push prices down?
If we realistically expect foreclosure filings to peak in the later half of 2012 (see previous entries at www.smashedfeet.com) when will the peak of distressed home supply actually hit the market?
How long after that will demand increase at a sufficient enough pace to start putting a dent in the enormous supply?
If we know that once supply has peaked and demand is not falling we will hit a market bottom within 6-12 months, when will that occur?
Once we reach that market bottom, will buyers, lenders and others magically forget what happened to get us there and start diving back into the real estate market throwing caution to the wind or will the bottom be extended with an eventual slow and careful re entry by the lenders and buyers?
If we can realistically assume inventory won't peak until late 2013 at the earliest, and a bottom won't be reached until most likely at least 2015, how long will that bottom last?
How many years will it take to get back to today's levels?
How many baby boomers will still be around, let alone buying at that point?
How many lenders will still be around, let alone lending at that point?
When our government, NAR, etc all start insisting that things are turning around, almost jumping up and down shouting that it's getting better . . . what is the one thing you know it's not getting?
Or are you one of the sheep who believes what our politicians and Realtors tell you?
More questions to consider:
What happens when the rest of the world, led by Brazil, Russia, India and China no longer permit the US Dollar to be artificially propped up?
What happens when no one wants to lend $ to the US?
What happens when the US can't even afford to make interest payments on the debt owed to the rest of the world?
What happens when US citizens realize that the money they were told was available for their pensions and retirements really isn't there?
What happens when all the sheep stop being fed?
Hmmmm . . .
The most important question:
What are you doing to position yourself and those you care about to help as many others as possible through the stress, chaos and turmoil that exists today and the unavoidable future pain already guaranteed by asinine irresponsible choices over the past 60+ years?
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Here it comes, health care and the tip of the tax increase iceberg . . .
Taxes won't go up for 95% of Americans. Remember a year ago when we were all promised this?
How about improved health care system promises?
check out:
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/294876/Despite-Obama%E2%80%99s-Promise-Higher-Taxes-Needed-for-Health-Care-Reform-Top-Economist-Stiglitz-Says?tickers=%5Edji,%5EGSPC,unh,ihf,AET,WLP,CI&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
or click on title above to see if you like the track we are on . . .
I don't
While certainly a capable economist, Joseph Stiglitz, can't really beleive that raising taxes now will EVER result in lower taxes later!
How about improved health care system promises?
check out:
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/294876/Despite-Obama%E2%80%99s-Promise-Higher-Taxes-Needed-for-Health-Care-Reform-Top-Economist-Stiglitz-Says?tickers=%5Edji,%5EGSPC,unh,ihf,AET,WLP,CI&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
or click on title above to see if you like the track we are on . . .
I don't
While certainly a capable economist, Joseph Stiglitz, can't really beleive that raising taxes now will EVER result in lower taxes later!
Geithner - funny, but not really!
Mike Morgan recently wrote the following, this is why I respect him, click on title above or cut and paste link below for a funny, yet sad clip:
Hank Paulson was devious, corrupt and an outright criminal that far exceeded anything Madoff did. But he's a Goldman Sachs untouchable.
Tim Geithner is also devious, corrupt and an outright criminal, but he is also dumb as a box of rocks. Then again, maybe he is sly as a fox and just continuing the masterful fraud that Hank Paulson started.
Below is a link to a clip everyone should watch. Here is Tim the Tax Cheat telling us AGAIN that the recession is over AND the housing crisis is over . . . but he can't sell his old house!
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-july-29-2009/home-crisis-investigation
Let me assure you, the housing crisis is NOT over. In fact, it is going to get much worse as unemployment rises and the banks are eventually forced to release the foreclosed homes on their books.
As a Florida real estate broker working with banks and asset managers, I can definitively state that there are a flood of foreclosures backing up in the system. Moreover, when they do come on the market, here in Florida we have a thing called mold. Since the banks are not properly managing these properties, many of the homes we see come on the foreclosure market have had no air conditioning for months . . . which means they are full of toxic mold. Sometimes these properties are given a quick white wash.
Basically, banks are not in the real estate business. Most of them hire inept asset managers that destroy value by ignoring what needs to be done to manage these properties. We don't work with them, but we see the results of their inattention every day. The asset managers we work with demand perfection, and this means clean the homes up and turn on all utilities. Beware if you are buying a foreclosed home, and beware of the flood of foreclosures yet to hit the markets.
The Housing Crisis is not over. Think of it like a drowning person that comes up for yet one more breath of air before sinking to the bottom.
Hank Paulson was devious, corrupt and an outright criminal that far exceeded anything Madoff did. But he's a Goldman Sachs untouchable.
Tim Geithner is also devious, corrupt and an outright criminal, but he is also dumb as a box of rocks. Then again, maybe he is sly as a fox and just continuing the masterful fraud that Hank Paulson started.
Below is a link to a clip everyone should watch. Here is Tim the Tax Cheat telling us AGAIN that the recession is over AND the housing crisis is over . . . but he can't sell his old house!
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-july-29-2009/home-crisis-investigation
Let me assure you, the housing crisis is NOT over. In fact, it is going to get much worse as unemployment rises and the banks are eventually forced to release the foreclosed homes on their books.
As a Florida real estate broker working with banks and asset managers, I can definitively state that there are a flood of foreclosures backing up in the system. Moreover, when they do come on the market, here in Florida we have a thing called mold. Since the banks are not properly managing these properties, many of the homes we see come on the foreclosure market have had no air conditioning for months . . . which means they are full of toxic mold. Sometimes these properties are given a quick white wash.
Basically, banks are not in the real estate business. Most of them hire inept asset managers that destroy value by ignoring what needs to be done to manage these properties. We don't work with them, but we see the results of their inattention every day. The asset managers we work with demand perfection, and this means clean the homes up and turn on all utilities. Beware if you are buying a foreclosed home, and beware of the flood of foreclosures yet to hit the markets.
The Housing Crisis is not over. Think of it like a drowning person that comes up for yet one more breath of air before sinking to the bottom.
Saturday, July 25, 2009
Shadow inventory
Take a few minutes and consider the comments made recently by Robert Shiller. "People have gotten very speculative in their attitudes towards housing . . . " wasn't speculation what got us into the mess in the first place? Are you prepared for the housing market languishing for many, many years? There are literally years of inventory not yet on the market, being held by banks who have foreclosed, or intentionally stalled foreclosure proceedings, which will at some point need to be liquidated. This is going to very ugly for many many years.
Click on link above or cut and paste below.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/278952/%E2%80%9CAnother-Bubble%E2%80%9D-In-Housing-It-Could-Happen-Says-Yale%E2%80%99s-Robert-Shiller?tickers=UMM,DMM,XHB,DHI,KBH,LEN,PHM&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
Click on link above or cut and paste below.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/278952/%E2%80%9CAnother-Bubble%E2%80%9D-In-Housing-It-Could-Happen-Says-Yale%E2%80%99s-Robert-Shiller?tickers=UMM,DMM,XHB,DHI,KBH,LEN,PHM&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)