Lehman is following Fannie and Freddie (yeah, I know they claim to have saved the day with these two, it’s just a band aid that will hopefully be pulled off by whomever takes office after the election as it is ludicrous and unsustainable. If they don’t pull it off and instead replace it with another band aid the suffering will be even worse) Fannie and Freddie followed Indy Mac who was following Bear Stearns. Get used to it; many, many more are already dead and just waiting to topple. Bank and other financial institutions will fail lots and lots of them. People will loose jobs, loose homes, loose families, lots and lots and lots of them. It really is already done. Everything being proposed now is akin to closing the proverbial barn door after the horses have run off.
Accept it, don’t be that big flightless bird that when threatened buries its head in the sand! Picture that bird for a minute, what part of its body is sticking up in the air when it buries its head? For the entire world to come along and kick!?! You have choices. The time to make wise choices is now. You can bury your head and hope that your government will, for the first time in history, address a problem without making it worse. Or you could put down the crack pipe and realize that the only one looking out for you and your loved ones is you. So do it. Get yourself as financially solid as you can (www.moorehelptrust.com) and then work to maximize your human potential – be the best you can in order to help others who simply don’t yet get it! Put a note in your calendar to check www.allthebluewhales.com in about 10 days, it’s not out there yet, but from what I hear it will be dedicated to helping those who want to help themselves and then once you have helped yourselves you will be able to help others.
PS anyone willing to bet that we see Dow 8,500 before we see Dow 12,000 again?
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Monday, September 8, 2008
Thomas Jefferson hundreds of years ago.
"It is incumbent on every generation to pay its own debts as it goes. A principle which if acted on would save one-half the wars of the world."
yeah, what did he know? I mean why pay today what you can ignore or avoid and leave for someone else tomorrow? U.S. economy + U.S. balance sheet + U.S. housing mess + global credit crisis + very little real leadership worldwide capable of making hard choices = _____________
(fill in the blank.)
yeah, what did he know? I mean why pay today what you can ignore or avoid and leave for someone else tomorrow? U.S. economy + U.S. balance sheet + U.S. housing mess + global credit crisis + very little real leadership worldwide capable of making hard choices = _____________
(fill in the blank.)
Friday, September 5, 2008
Peter G. Peterson Foundation
I came across the following article while reviewing postings on the Peter G. Peterson Foundation website (pgpf.org) Pete Peterson and David Walker, the foundation’s President and CEO, run this foundation that has the following mission:
We are dedicated to increasing public awareness of the nature and urgency of several key challenges threatening America's future, and to accelerating action on them. To address these challenges successfully, we will work to bring Americans together to find sensible, long-term solutions that transcend age, party lines and ideological divides in order to achieve real results.
Sounds pretty good to me!
This quote has been attributed to several different folks in the 19th Century, but it says it all.
The average age of the world's greatest civilizations from the beginning of history, has been about 200 years. During those 200 years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence:
From bondage to spiritual faith;
From spiritual faith to great courage;
From courage to liberty;
From liberty to abundance;
From abundance to complacency;
From complacency to apathy;
From apathy to dependence;
From dependency back into bondage
In my estimation, the shift from abundance to complacency took place about 25 +/- years ago. Since then we have, as a nation, been guilty of apathy. If we look at the average age of the world’s greatest civilizations (approx 200 years) and we look at the fact they go through these 7 phases, would it make sense that each phase is probably 25-30 years? Following that logic it appears obvious it’s time for us to become dependent . . . or wait, maybe we are already there.
We are dedicated to increasing public awareness of the nature and urgency of several key challenges threatening America's future, and to accelerating action on them. To address these challenges successfully, we will work to bring Americans together to find sensible, long-term solutions that transcend age, party lines and ideological divides in order to achieve real results.
Sounds pretty good to me!
This quote has been attributed to several different folks in the 19th Century, but it says it all.
The average age of the world's greatest civilizations from the beginning of history, has been about 200 years. During those 200 years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence:
From bondage to spiritual faith;
From spiritual faith to great courage;
From courage to liberty;
From liberty to abundance;
From abundance to complacency;
From complacency to apathy;
From apathy to dependence;
From dependency back into bondage
In my estimation, the shift from abundance to complacency took place about 25 +/- years ago. Since then we have, as a nation, been guilty of apathy. If we look at the average age of the world’s greatest civilizations (approx 200 years) and we look at the fact they go through these 7 phases, would it make sense that each phase is probably 25-30 years? Following that logic it appears obvious it’s time for us to become dependent . . . or wait, maybe we are already there.
Ross Perot charts economic reality
You thought the last entry on home ownership was a nightmare? Watch the presentation at http://perotcharts.com/ (Thanks to Lee Taylor in Atlanta for sharing this site with us) and realize how real the prospects for our nation’s economic collapse are. Negative - no. Doom and Gloom - not. Realistic slap in the face – sure. As a nation we have become lazy, ignorant and apathetic. If that statement no longer applies to you congratulations! Now how many people can you help today? If you aren’t going to help can you realistically expect to be rewarded as the rate of changes realized by our country accelerates? Ready to make a difference by being more fiscally responsible; start by talking to the guys at The Moore Help Trust. Ready to maximize your human potential and assist other in doing the same? Email “Help me to make a difference” to info@trgcoaching.com Whom did you help today?
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
The American Dream? Try Nightmare! Questions to consider if you own real estate today.
I have been an active investor for almost 30 years and have owned hundreds of properties during the majority of that time. I have been a real estate broker in multiple states for many years and have made a large portion of my income by coaching, speaking and training people in real estate and related industries, please consider this as you ask yourself the following questions . . .
Who decided that “The American Dream” is/was home ownership?
Was it the National Association of Realtors?
Any agenda there?
Do they EVER tell the public the truth?
If in most parts of the country today you can live in and enjoy a home for a fraction of the cost of owning why wouldn’t you?
What will happen to real estate taxes as the revenue received by our state and local governments continues to shrink from fewer real estate transfers, lower market values, less builder and developer profits to tax, higher defaults where taxes aren’t being paid etc?
Will our governments some how start operating on less?
Will they actually cut back?
Will they attempt to raise taxes?
How will that impact demand?
How about insurance . . . as more and more premiums aren’t being paid for homes in default, what will happen to the rates being charged to those who are actually paying?
As more and more home owners find themselves in trouble, or simply choose to walk away from properties they are struggling to keep, or that they are just upside down in . . . what will happen to the supply of “distressed properties” on the market?
How will that impact prices?
As lenders continue to be forced to tighten standards and credit continues to more and more difficult to find, what will continue to happen to demand?
As supply goes up, and demand continues to stay low, or perhaps lowers further . . . what will happen to prices?
If you don’t believe in, or want to acknowledge, the law of gravity and you jump out of a tree . . . what happens?
Does that happen because the law of gravity applies whether you want it to or not?
Have you ever heard of the law of supply and demand?
Does that law care what you want to believe?
Realistically, which do you see happening first – supply somehow magically disappearing or demand miraculously reappearing without credit being available?
Do you think lenders can go on indefinitely not receiving income on loans that have been made, or do you think that foreclosures are going to have to increase significantly over the next several years?
Did you know that in most parts of the U.S. today that even if demand increased to the insane levels we saw at the peak of the market, current supply numbers would still grow as even that level of demand would not be enough to absorb the supply?
Can you say “too many rooftops?”
What can you do today about that fact that the number of dwelling units in the US was permitted to grow at a pace far in excess of the number of households?
How do you get rid of supply?
Are there options other than natural disaster or allowing the time to pass to absorb the supply?
Could you just burn it down or demolish it?
Do you think that’s a realistic option?
How long do you think it will be before supply is absorbed?
How long do you think it will be before demand returns?
Do you think the media will let us soon forget the pain of millions of distressed homeowners?
How will that impact demand over the next decade, or more?
What if you don’t live in a market where prices appreciated in a ridiculous manner, are you immune to this correction?
Or do the people buying US mortgage backed securities simply say “I’ve had enough and am not willing to provide more capital to buy paper that has a value far less than I was promised and for which I can’t collect on the so called insurance I was promised?”
When the capital goes away and credit is no longer available does it only impact the high appreciation markets or does it impact all non cash buyers in all parts of the country (and eventually Canada, the UK, the balance of Europe and in about 5 years or so most of Asia?)
What will the buyers who have come into the market over the past 1-3 years with little or no money out of their pockets, do when they realize that the $250k debt they have is costing them $2500+/mo for something that is only worth $150k?
What are they likely to do when they realize they could live in the same type of property in the same neighborhood for $1000/mo?
What about the people who bought into the negative amortization loans, you know where the amount they owe grows each month while the underlying asset value declines . . . what will happen to those loans as the majority of them convert to huge fully amortized payments peaking around 2012?
Will there be a few more defaults across the country between now and then?
Is there a realistic, logical possibility other than market forces, supply and demand etc working themselves out, such that we see a bottom around 2015 +/- and then we regroup?
If you answered yes to that last question – what are you smoking?
What if after booms we always see busts which take us back to, or perhaps below the 100 level on the Shiller index? Would that mean that if we peaked at 199, without adjusting for inflation, we would most likely see an adjustment to prices in the range of 50-70%??? If you knew the 2005 value of your home may well drop by 50-70% before a bottom is reached . . . what different decisions would you make?
Want to see the charts? Thank you Alex!
http://www.thedigeratilife.com/blog/index.php/2007/07/09/historical-financial-charts-are-you-invested-in-these-markets/
I live in Naples FL; I reside in a home that at the peak was near $1,000,000. Today I could buy it for under $600k; it will bottom in another 7 years or so under $400k. If I can live in this home for $1500/mo, not have any capital at risk, not worry about real estate taxes and insurance escalating rapidly, not have to mess with repairs, etc . . . how would owning be a dream?
When you dream about hundreds of thousands of dollars disappearing in equity, and paying monthly expenses 4 times what you need to be paying . . . what do you call that type of dream?
American dream or nightmare?
Is this all doom and gloom super negative stuff?
Or do you have the ability to see the opportunities and possibilities in this?
Did you know that the greatest opportunities to make a real difference occur when people are hurting?
Do you think that 95%+ of Americans will be worse off financially tomorrow than they are today, and worse still in a month, even more so in a year and far more so in a decade, or two?
Are you going to be one of them?
Can you help any of them?
Would you like to?
What if you focused on maximizing your human potential? Visit www.iLearningGlobal.biz/theresultsgroup
What if you focused on becoming more financially responsible? Visit http://www.moorehelptrust.com/
Want to learn to see the beauty in all of this? The possibilities and the opportunities to truly help others? Email “help me to see” to info@trgcoaching.com
Who decided that “The American Dream” is/was home ownership?
Was it the National Association of Realtors?
Any agenda there?
Do they EVER tell the public the truth?
If in most parts of the country today you can live in and enjoy a home for a fraction of the cost of owning why wouldn’t you?
What will happen to real estate taxes as the revenue received by our state and local governments continues to shrink from fewer real estate transfers, lower market values, less builder and developer profits to tax, higher defaults where taxes aren’t being paid etc?
Will our governments some how start operating on less?
Will they actually cut back?
Will they attempt to raise taxes?
How will that impact demand?
How about insurance . . . as more and more premiums aren’t being paid for homes in default, what will happen to the rates being charged to those who are actually paying?
As more and more home owners find themselves in trouble, or simply choose to walk away from properties they are struggling to keep, or that they are just upside down in . . . what will happen to the supply of “distressed properties” on the market?
How will that impact prices?
As lenders continue to be forced to tighten standards and credit continues to more and more difficult to find, what will continue to happen to demand?
As supply goes up, and demand continues to stay low, or perhaps lowers further . . . what will happen to prices?
If you don’t believe in, or want to acknowledge, the law of gravity and you jump out of a tree . . . what happens?
Does that happen because the law of gravity applies whether you want it to or not?
Have you ever heard of the law of supply and demand?
Does that law care what you want to believe?
Realistically, which do you see happening first – supply somehow magically disappearing or demand miraculously reappearing without credit being available?
Do you think lenders can go on indefinitely not receiving income on loans that have been made, or do you think that foreclosures are going to have to increase significantly over the next several years?
Did you know that in most parts of the U.S. today that even if demand increased to the insane levels we saw at the peak of the market, current supply numbers would still grow as even that level of demand would not be enough to absorb the supply?
Can you say “too many rooftops?”
What can you do today about that fact that the number of dwelling units in the US was permitted to grow at a pace far in excess of the number of households?
How do you get rid of supply?
Are there options other than natural disaster or allowing the time to pass to absorb the supply?
Could you just burn it down or demolish it?
Do you think that’s a realistic option?
How long do you think it will be before supply is absorbed?
How long do you think it will be before demand returns?
Do you think the media will let us soon forget the pain of millions of distressed homeowners?
How will that impact demand over the next decade, or more?
What if you don’t live in a market where prices appreciated in a ridiculous manner, are you immune to this correction?
Or do the people buying US mortgage backed securities simply say “I’ve had enough and am not willing to provide more capital to buy paper that has a value far less than I was promised and for which I can’t collect on the so called insurance I was promised?”
When the capital goes away and credit is no longer available does it only impact the high appreciation markets or does it impact all non cash buyers in all parts of the country (and eventually Canada, the UK, the balance of Europe and in about 5 years or so most of Asia?)
What will the buyers who have come into the market over the past 1-3 years with little or no money out of their pockets, do when they realize that the $250k debt they have is costing them $2500+/mo for something that is only worth $150k?
What are they likely to do when they realize they could live in the same type of property in the same neighborhood for $1000/mo?
What about the people who bought into the negative amortization loans, you know where the amount they owe grows each month while the underlying asset value declines . . . what will happen to those loans as the majority of them convert to huge fully amortized payments peaking around 2012?
Will there be a few more defaults across the country between now and then?
Is there a realistic, logical possibility other than market forces, supply and demand etc working themselves out, such that we see a bottom around 2015 +/- and then we regroup?
If you answered yes to that last question – what are you smoking?
What if after booms we always see busts which take us back to, or perhaps below the 100 level on the Shiller index? Would that mean that if we peaked at 199, without adjusting for inflation, we would most likely see an adjustment to prices in the range of 50-70%??? If you knew the 2005 value of your home may well drop by 50-70% before a bottom is reached . . . what different decisions would you make?
Want to see the charts? Thank you Alex!
http://www.thedigeratilife.com/blog/index.php/2007/07/09/historical-financial-charts-are-you-invested-in-these-markets/
I live in Naples FL; I reside in a home that at the peak was near $1,000,000. Today I could buy it for under $600k; it will bottom in another 7 years or so under $400k. If I can live in this home for $1500/mo, not have any capital at risk, not worry about real estate taxes and insurance escalating rapidly, not have to mess with repairs, etc . . . how would owning be a dream?
When you dream about hundreds of thousands of dollars disappearing in equity, and paying monthly expenses 4 times what you need to be paying . . . what do you call that type of dream?
American dream or nightmare?
Is this all doom and gloom super negative stuff?
Or do you have the ability to see the opportunities and possibilities in this?
Did you know that the greatest opportunities to make a real difference occur when people are hurting?
Do you think that 95%+ of Americans will be worse off financially tomorrow than they are today, and worse still in a month, even more so in a year and far more so in a decade, or two?
Are you going to be one of them?
Can you help any of them?
Would you like to?
What if you focused on maximizing your human potential? Visit www.iLearningGlobal.biz/theresultsgroup
What if you focused on becoming more financially responsible? Visit http://www.moorehelptrust.com/
Want to learn to see the beauty in all of this? The possibilities and the opportunities to truly help others? Email “help me to see” to info@trgcoaching.com
The government we allowed to exist . . .
"By the time we are finished with this tragic period in U.S. economic history, capitalism will be on its knees, laid low by poor policy decisions and the nationalization of bad assets." - Joshua Rosner - Financial Times
"Throughout the 12 months of the crisis, it is difficult to avoid the impression that the Fed is too close to the financial markets and leading financial institutions, and too responsive to their special pleadings, to make the right decisions for the economy as a whole." - Wilhelm Buiter, a former member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee.
I guess the silver lining is any day now we will start seeing local, and eventually state, governments, file for bankruptcy protection. When you rely on tax revenue from real estate transactions, profitability of financial institutions, builders, developers and the like, and then that profit dries up . . . what happens to your tax revenue? when your tax revenue disappears what choice do you have other than to cut expenses (the public won't mind) or raise taxes (oh that's ok we are all so well off right now that we can afford to pick up the slack!)
write this down - Today, September 2, 2008 things are better financially for 95% of Americans than they will be at any point over the next 20+ years. 19 out of every 20 people you know will suffer more and more financially over the upcoming months and years. What will happen to their mental and physical health as they go through this? How about their family and spiritual well being?
"Throughout the 12 months of the crisis, it is difficult to avoid the impression that the Fed is too close to the financial markets and leading financial institutions, and too responsive to their special pleadings, to make the right decisions for the economy as a whole." - Wilhelm Buiter, a former member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee.
I guess the silver lining is any day now we will start seeing local, and eventually state, governments, file for bankruptcy protection. When you rely on tax revenue from real estate transactions, profitability of financial institutions, builders, developers and the like, and then that profit dries up . . . what happens to your tax revenue? when your tax revenue disappears what choice do you have other than to cut expenses (the public won't mind) or raise taxes (oh that's ok we are all so well off right now that we can afford to pick up the slack!)
write this down - Today, September 2, 2008 things are better financially for 95% of Americans than they will be at any point over the next 20+ years. 19 out of every 20 people you know will suffer more and more financially over the upcoming months and years. What will happen to their mental and physical health as they go through this? How about their family and spiritual well being?
Monday, September 1, 2008
E mail of the year from Brian Vee Thomas in OK City
E-Mail of the Year!!WOULDN'T IT BE GREAT TO TURN ON THE TV AND HEAR ANY U.S. PRESIDENT, DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN GIVE THE FOLLOWING SPEECH?'My Fellow Americans: As you all know, the defeat of the Iraq regime has been completed.Since congress does not want to spend any more money on this war, our mission in Iraq is complete.This morning I gave the order for a complete removal of all American forces from Iraq This action will be complete within 30 days. It is now time to begin the reckoning.Before me, I have two lists. One list contains the names of countries which have stood by our side during the Iraq conflict. This list is short. The United Kingdom, Spain, Bulgaria, Australia, and Poland are some of the countries listed there.The other list contains every one not on the first list. Most of the world's nations are on that list. My press secretary will be distributing copies of both lists later this evening.Let me start by saying that effective immediately, foreign aid to those nations on List 2 ceases immediately and indefinitely. The money saved during the first year alone will pretty much pay for the costs of the Iraqi war. THEN EVERY YEAR THERE AFTER IT'LL GO TO OUR SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM SO IT WON’T GO BROKE IN 20 YEARS.The American people are no longer going to pour money into third world Hell holes and watch those government leaders grow fat on corruption.Need help with a famine? Wrestling with an epidemic? Call France.In the future, together with Congress, I will work to redirect this money toward solving the vexing social problems we still have at home. On that note, a word to terrorist organizations. Screw with us and we will hunt you down and eliminate you and all your friends from the face of the earth.Thirsting for a gutsy country to terrorize? Try France or maybe China... I am ordering the immediate severing of diplomatic relations with France, Germany, and Russia. Thanks for all your help, comrades. We are retiring from NATO as well.Bonne chance, mezamies.I have instructed the Mayor of New York City to begin towing the many UN diplomatic vehicles located in Manhattan with more than two unpaid parking tickets to sites where those vehicles will be stripped, shredded and crushed. I don't care about whatever treaty pertains to this. You creeps have tens of thousands of unpaid tickets. Pay those tickets tomorrow or watch your precious Benzes, Beamers and limos be turned over to some of the finest chop shops in the world.I love New YorkA special note to our neighbors. Canada is on List 2. Since we are likely to be seeing a lot more of each other, you folks might want to try not pissing us off for a change.Mexico is also on List 2 its president and his entire corrupt government really need an attitude adjustment. I will have a couple extra thousand tanks and infantry divisions sitting around. Guess where I am going to put'em? Yep, border security.Oh, by the way, the United States is abrogating the NAFTA treaty - starting now.We are tired of the one-way highway. Immediately, we'll be drilling for oil in Alaska - which will take care of this country's oil needs for decades to come. If you're an environmentalist who opposes this decision, I refer you to List 2 above: pick a country and move there.It is time for America to focus on its own welfare and its own citizens. Some will accuse us of isolationism.I answer them by saying, 'darn tootin.'Nearly a century of trying to help folks live a decent life around the world has only earned us the undying enmity of just about everyone on the planet. It is time to eliminate hunger in America It is time to eliminate homelessness in America. To the nations on List 1, a final thought. Thank you guys. We owe you and we won't forget.To the nations on List 2, a final thought: You might want to learn to speak Arabic.God bless America ... Thank you and good night.'If you can read this, thank a teacher. If you are reading it in English, thank a soldier
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